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AKs out of position

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AKs out of position

Postby iceman5 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:59 am

$5/$10 NL

I ($1000) limp UTG with [As][Ks]. MP ($900...tight solid player) limps. Both blinds are in, unraised pot.

Pot is $40. The flop comes [Ad][Qh][4s]. Blinds check, I check and MP bets $40. Im the only caller.

Pot is $120. The turn is the [8s]. I have TPTK and the nut flush draw. Whats your standard play here? Lead out? Check/call? Check raise? If you check raise, you would have to be willing to call all in correct?

I checked, he bet $40 again which looked very weak. I check raised to $120 and since I cant believe this straight forward solid player is betting that weak with AQ or a set, I was going to call all in or push myself if he reraised. What do you think?

I think my play looks like I have a set which makes him fold AJ, AT type hands, but I think hes going to check behind with those anyway.
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Postby briachek » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:03 am

It depends on how solid that read is. If he is like you, he would not likely have AQ or a set but you wouldn't make that weak bet on the turn. You would either bet bigger or check. Does he not raise much preflop as that would help eliminate AQ. Overall, I like your play as you will have outs but I don't think your thoughts on All In are as cut and dry and you make it seem. It does seem likely you are well ahead though. i think he probably folded.
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Postby Stoneburg » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:20 am

I'd probably just check/call the turn, but then of course I would have a tough decision on the river if he bet and the flush didn't come... I guess I'd have to fold then since he's unlikely to bet the river with AJ, AT or something beatable.
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Postby tunkpirate7 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:53 am

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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:01 am

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Postby kennyg » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:11 am

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Postby kennyg » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:13 am

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Postby Rhound50 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:21 am

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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:27 am

The more I think about it, I like the check/call on the flop. Then lead the turn. He may still call with a hand I beat (AJ/AT). If he raises the turn, he probably has AQ or a set and I can calculate my odds for the flush.

This player is tight and I dont think he bluffs much.

If I check raise the flop and then lead the turn.....if he raises the turn, the pot will be much bigger and I'll likely be playing for half to 3/4 of my stack chasing the flush.
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Postby eliteprodigy » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:36 pm

I like check-calling the flop and check-calling or leading the turn. I actually hate a check-raise on the turn. Its building the pot out of position. You have a draw to the nuts, check-call and take a card off and play for a smaller pot if no spade comes or, Lead out and you'll only get raise if your beat (IE: two pair or set), in which case, you can call and draw to your flush depending on how much he raises you. Also, there is no way you can play for your stack here if he pushes all-in over you. That just seems wrong in my mind, you can run the numbers as I'm not a number man but it doesn't seem to add up.
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Postby Rhound50 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:20 pm

I agree completely that you cant call an all in here, best case scenario is you are drawing to 12 outs vs AQ but quite often your are going to be drawing to 6 or 7 outs against a set. There is no way this could be a +ev play, though I havent actually run the numbers.
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:43 pm

I check raised to $120 and he folded. I didnt think he had much and wanted to get another bet out of a AT/AJ type hand. I was pretty sure he would check behind on the river with those hands which is why I check raised. I guess I also couldve check/called and then led the river, but then he gets to see the river for free (because I didnt make him pay more than he already did when he bet)
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