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I did make the right play.....didn't I?

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I did make the right play.....didn't I?

Postby Twelver » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:13 am

Villan was slightly loose, aggressive.

NL $25 on Party, I have $38 he has me covered.

I am in the SB with [2h] [2d]. 3 limpers to me, I complete and villan in the BB raises to .75. Everyone calls.

Pot = $3.75
Flop = [9d] [7s] [2c]

I check b/c I knew the villan would bet something. Villan bets $1 its folded back to me and I just call. b/c there are not any real draws out there and I know he will fire again on the turn.

Pot = $5.75
Turn = [Td]

I check again this time planning on check raising. Villan bets $3 and I check raise to $8. He calls the extra $5. At this point I have him on something like maybe AT or he is on a draw.

Pot = $21.75
River = [Kc]

I lead out for $8, villan pushes all in, crap now what? Did he hit his straight, maybe he has two pair? Whats your play?

-twelver
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:25 am

Tough call. I'd say you should've raised on the flop instead of just calling - I know you wanted to milk him for more but raising on the flop helps avoid situations like this, and if the calls your raise with a hand like JQ, 68 or 8J then he's making a -EV play which is all the better for you, and if he's holding 2 pair or TPTK he's going to pay you off either way. Personally i'd probably call him at the river as it looks like he might've hit 2 pair with KT or even K9, and with so much in the pot i'd put you at 35% - 40% odds to win against the players of NL25 at party. especially against a sLAG. I wouldn't be surprised if he turned over AK either.

Hope my advice is of some help/credibility.
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Postby briachek » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:58 am

I call no question. The only hand you really fear is KK. It just as likely he caught 2 pair or has AK so since he would do it with many more hands that you beat than you lose to, its a definite call.
Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby shamdonk » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:02 am

This is me; but I hate check raising a set. Lead into the raiser, 25NL party players despise it. I can't tell you how many times i've lead my set into a raiser they then try to defend their hand by coming over the top, we get down to the felt before the next 2 cards come; and AK/AQ, TPTK, overpair, bottom 2, or even a flush draw are shown. If you think hes going to bet why not put the pressure on him? There is no way on that flop do I think your behind. I think if you lead the flop AND/or turn you are all in before the river. Plus it helps to know where you stand. Btw I call that river once on monday and twice on tuesday. (not to be redundant.)
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Postby Twelver » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:24 am

Thanks for the replies.

I did call and he showed [Jc] [Qd] for the runner runner straight.

Looking back, I think if I would have check raise the flop he might have folded, but once he had the open ended draw on the turn he was going no where. Oh well...learn from mistakes.

-twelver
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Postby shamdonk » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:49 am

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Postby k3nt » Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:52 pm

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Postby Stoneburg » Thu Jul 28, 2005 3:01 pm

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Postby shamdonk » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:48 pm

umm. He is a 97% vs 3 % dog on the flop and on the turn he is a 4:1 dog. And you like him calling a check raise? I mean, I don't want to call you out or start anything but I think it was awfully played(QJo). The set should have been more aggressive but I think that the raise on the turn should make anyone dump this OEer.
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Postby Stoneburg » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:58 pm

What's so bad about it? He makes a continuation bet (that's too small) trying to buy the pot, that's good. On the turn he picks up an OESD and bets it, now he get's check-raised but he's got a draw to the nuts and obviously his opponent has a big hand, so he'll get paid off AND the guy who check/raised him has a big stack.

There's $12 in the pot and only costs him $5 to call. But the implied odds are 40:5 if he thinks he can stack him... and since his hand is well disguised, he probably can. So I think it would be downright stupid of him to fold here.

And whatever does him being a 93% dog on the flop have to do with anything? :?
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