I'm always trying to come up with new ways to bluff off my hard-earned salary ... (and posting them!) What do y'all think about this? (Inspired by Ice's recent all diamond hand.)

I limp UTG with [Qs], only button and BB come in for the ride. Everyone's got about $400.

Button seems solid, and has been involved in a discussion about the last hand (TP+fl draw vs set) in which what he's said has been sound. So, probably OK.

Oh, and I've been solid (this is Party) - shown down a few medium hands where I checked the turn, check-folded a fair bit etc. I've been at the table 30 odd hands.

Flop [3d][2d]. BB checks, I bet $9 into $14 pot, button calls quickly. BB folds.
Turn , I bet $25 into $32 pot. Button thinks for a while, then calls.
River . $82 pot. Pull the trigger one more time, or slink away with my tail between my legs?!

Thoughts much appreciated.

No way I fire the third barrell, especially out of position. If you do, it'll need to be the pot or greater since you DON'T want a call. If you have to bluff, how about a CR all-in. Then at least you could get a read on whether or not he's trying to buy the pot?

Also, on the turn, your 2nd barrell seems pretty weak. I would have at least bet the pot.

TR

The phrase "spewing chips" comes to mind.

I think I'd just check/fold that postflop to be honest. Maybe bet the flop, but when you get called, you need to shut down. On the river, you need to check and fold if he bets. You shouldn't invest this much money with AQo in an unraised pot.


edit: "shut down", not "shit down"...

Why cant he have the nut flush here? He has position so he may not want to raise until the river.

Your hand is not irrelevant since you beat a busted draw. If you're sure he has a busted draw, check it. Only if he has the and a pair he is willing to fold will a bet be correct. All the times he's calling down with two-pair, a set, TP, or the flush, you keep giving him money.

Not to be rude but this seems like the perfect example of how to not play AQo. You're building a pot with no pair, no draw, out of position, in an unraised pot.

The concensus of the board based on previous similiar posts is that you should bluff bigger on the river than I like, I don't agree in most cases.

If you bet 3/4 pot to full pot on the river and it fails when he shows some cheese like KQ with second nut draw, in YOUR pot. You get the advantage of being able to write the note value bet big against this guy. I would stick with 1/2 pot to 3/4 pot value bluff unless you have been showing down full pot value bets with solid hands otherwise it looks too much like a steal. You want to hit the mark of what is too much to get called with out looking out of character to your previous betting, a bet that is too expensive but looks like it wants a call. There are people that I will call with middle pair if their river bet is too big.

There are no two ways about it, if the bluff works and he folds you are a genius, if it fails you are a moron spewing chips with no pair no draw on a three suited board. A failed bluff isn't the worse thing in the world, and at worse may get you big action later. This is one instance that I might show a bluff in order to be able to value bet big in the future on a made hand, but I generally don't show and remember my target number for playing against this guy for value and for folding and hope he doesn't catch on to my play.

Edit: I'm not condoning or dismissing your monkey play here, I run plays like this when I have a good idea that they should work. Just trying to suggest ways to play the river since you are there...

I disagree with most.

Although I think you should have checked the turn and given up...

Now the ONLY chance for you to win..is to bet the river.

I don't think you need to bet full pot. Bet something like $40, like you're trying to milk.. If he has a pair and was drawing....he will fold the hand. I know I would.

This all being said...if you had checked the turn you wouldn't be in this situation. That is your key mistake.

So how much did you settle on for your river bet? Surely you didn't check...