$1/$2 NL

UTG limps, UTG+1 ($225) raises to $8, 2 guys call, button calls $5 all in. I call in the BB with [7d]. UTG calls as well. I have everyone covered. All other callers have around $200.

Pot is $46. The flop comes [9d][5d]. I have a flush draw and gutshot.

Checked to preflop raiser who bets $16. Looks pretty weak to me. Its folded back around to me (button is all in already). I think I can take it away from him, but I decided to wait until the turn so I flat call. UTG folds.

Pot is $78. The turn is the . I check, he bets $18 and I push all in. What do you think?

Villian is a pretty good player. 22.5VIP / 6.5 % preflop raise....6.5PTBBs

Well until you said he was a pretty good player I would have thought he had AA. With AK he's going to bet more and KK will probably give up after you call the flop IMO. The only excetion here is if he's got AdKd which is a strong possibility.

In my experience a lot of players will bet like this with top set. He knows the deck is crippled and there are no *obvious* straight draws. You could be on a flush draw but I would guess he's trying to bait you into a raise and will call when you push. I've just seen it happen so many times where the set of aces lets another hand catch up cheap and THEN gets worried and shoves allin.

I don't have a clue as to what he's got but we KNOW we are beat here on the turn. If he's got AdKd you are drawing to 3 outs... I don't know if I would be willing to make this move on the turn after you've already missed one of your chances to hit the draw but then again you were getting a nice price to just call the flop.

Obviously I dont have the best hand, but if he has AQ/AJ or KK/QQ like I think he does, my fold equity has to bet about 80% or higher.

If he calls with AK (non diamonds) which I dont think he will do (would you?), I still have 17 outs.

If he has [Kd] or Aa, I have big problems, but I dont think theres a chacne in hell he has AA. He mightve made that flop bet with AA, but hes going to bet much more on the turn. [Kd] is the only hand Im woried about.

I'm iffy on the play, it sure looks like you have a set, it sure looks like he doesn't, I don't know how married to KK and AK AQ he gets. If he is tight he might have QQ or JJ and make a great fold, if he has AK or AA I doubt he is getting of his hand. I bet if he has either of those he doesn't get off his hand when you make your draw so all in is excessive if you think he has an Ace in his hand.

Against most of the muppets I've been playing lately, even the tighter ones, they are all still calling stations with better hand selection. The only reason to raise is to put more money in the pot.

If he called I hope you had the best of it or dug up the best of it.

$18 into $78 is weak as hell. But kenny's right, an all-in looks like it just might be an attempt to buy it. I like $80 to $100 -- pot size, more or less.

Actually k3nt....i've thought about it a little more....i think a raise to from $115- $125 is more correct...because then on the small chance iceman gets reraised.. he is compelled to call because of enourmous pot odds.

Man I love this forum. Yall have such insight, its amazing.

I like the play simply because its full of bravdo and has outs. Even it he calls and it fails, it sets you up for quite a table image (play with Ice = play for all your chips).

From a more technical point, its really about fold equity. Couldn't you look up in PT his fold on turn % and use that as a guide (especially if say its rather high or low relatively)?


TR

delete me!

The guy folded to my all in, but because the button was already all in, our cards were exposed. The button had T8s and hit a flush so I lost the $24 or so main pot and won the larger side pot.

The preflop raiser said he folded AJ and he was more than a bit upset. He said something like "well at least I have notes on how you play now"

I said "we've been playing together for months. You dont have notes on me yet?"

He said something about adding "crazy bastard" to his notes.

Im still not sure.

I still think your raise was too big...nobody would play a set like that.....

honestly...if you made that play on me...i would strongly consider calling AK because it is so suspect. I would always fold AJ though...