Before I post the results, a question for all those who advocated checking behind on the river -

Would you also check behind with 33? What about TT? Be honest!

D

Waiting patiently for results

Droq, this is a pretty interesting situation that in one form or another comes up pretty often and has definitely got me thinking.

My real opinion on these river situations is that you need a lot of control over your opponent to make this bet. If you do have such control, then you can gain enormous EV by making it.

What you're obviously looking for is an opponent inclined to bluff the river on a busted draw. Then you want to give him every chance imaginable to make that bluff. That's the simple version of this read.

What you obviously DON'T want to run into are AQ or Q9 here. Against a player who likes to slowplay monsters basically, you never want to bet on such a hand. Similarly if he plays sets this way, although I view that as less likely here in all actuality. Admittedly, I can hardly imagine YOUR bets signifying some kind of straight, so a set could be hoping to nail you on the river there if he's really on top of you.

I guess I should still qualify the latter part a bit: Even if he is slowplaying, why on earth would he check to you yet again on the river? The only reasonable explanation would be if he thinks you'll bet it one more time.

I don't know, the more I think about this, the more I like your play here. I wouldn't do it against Stu Unger, but he's dead...

The only thing that would really worry me is letting people get some kind of read like "Bets the river consistently." But I'm assuming you don't do it on something like TPTK (?). Top 2 has a lot going for it for that kind of bet. The main thing is that you're not going to get side-swiped by someone who hit a kicker somewhere along the line (like: they call your flop bet with A6 when you have AQ, then hit their kicker, nonsense like that).

And, even against players who don't bluff the river like that, by betting you gain what one might call "curiosity equity." I do think that every pot you win uncontested gains you some value on the next pot you're in. Eventually, they just HAVE to find out what it is you're betting.

I may have to revise my river bet criteria to include top 2 pair--less gets rather risky, I think, but might also be doable if you have a lot of control over your opponent. The move is certainly MORE attractive against river bluffers and LESS attractive against tricky players. I have indeed seen some players I'd consider capable of playing sets or straights this way, but it's certainly pretty bizarre. Actually, the one player I'm really thinking of would probably just flat call your river bet with either of those winning hands--really more passive than tricky.

I ended up calling the river bet, and my opponent showed me TT. I didn't really want to call, but I had to see what he had. The pot odds were pretty good and if he did have a monster, I would have some valuable info for the future. I was pretty upset in dropping that extra 1100, but I made it back off that same opponent over the course of the next few hours. Later, I noticed that he liked to bet his draws on the flop, as well as top pair. Needless to say, I had him crushed after that, raising him on the turn in almost every pot we were in together (if the draw didnt get there) - as I knew that he couldn't have a big hand. I think I took at least 5 pots from him with little to nothing.

I still think betting the river was the right thing to do, just not against this opponent - hindsight is 20/20. But against a typical player who will not check three times with a set or straight, I think that firing on the river is the right thing to do.

Ais -

I'm not too worried about getting a rep as someone who fires constantly on the river - because its not really true. I dont push 1-pair hands on the river - its too easy for your opponent to back into 2 pair and still be scared to bet, in a lot of cases. It's not really value betting then. But with top 2 - I think that this qualifies as big enough of a hand to bet the river. Only a set or a straight beats me - and 99% of my opponents would have made the move on the turn. I may not get called often, but I think the bet is still +EV. It just so happens I ran into the one guy that loves to slowplay.

D

A question for the experts.

Is there anything wrong with the opponent's play here with TT?

Obviously, the guy is too predictable so you can push him around. So that's not good. But what if you make a play like this only occasionally?

I never, ever slowplay a set on a board like that. Should I start doing it say 1 time in 10 or 1 time in 20, just to mix things up?

Drogga... I'm glad you got him later.

K3nt--I understand you comment about mixing it up and perhaps slowplaying a set every once in awhile. Of course, when I do that they suck out on me and I have to do pushups!