$1/$2 NL

#1) I limp UTG with [Ks]. 1 more limper who is a muppet and then the button raises to $12. Everyone has a full stack. Hes not a great player and Im sure he has AA-JJ or AK. Im going to blast him on the flop and if he has AA, so be it.

The muppet also calls.

Pot is $39. The flop comes [4s][4c]. I check, muppet checks and the button bets $35. I check raise all in.

Discuss.....


#2) 2 limpers and I limp with 33. Button raises to $9 and Im the only caller.

Pot is $25 The flop comes [3d][6h]. I check/call his $15 bet.
Pot is $55. The turn is the . I lead for $28 and he calls.
Pot is $111. The river is the .......UGH! I check/fold to his $30 bet.

I think I shouldve bet the turn harder. I couldve led the flop or check raised it, but Ive been folding off too many people with my sets in raised pots and wanted to let him get in deeper before I came to life. Thoughts?

I know it's aggravating to have everyone fold to your set, but what can you do?

I just finished one where I doubled up to the tune of $600 profit, then the field folded when I got another in quick succession. Ok, I could have mixed it up the second time, probably pulled a little out of it on a checkraise. But I have a set of threes from BB, and there's an A on the board, so, either no one had an ace or else they were just scared after my first big score.

Anyhow, I think you just have to live with folding the field sometimes. If it's a completely raggedy flop, you run a very high risk of getting straighted if you try checking it, and if there's a high card in there, someone may try to raise or at least call. Then there are the flush situations--and you can beat the flush on the river, where it takes a very good player to recognize the dangers inherent in a paired board. Still, you want a big pot.

The only real exception I might see is if you have an habitual pot-buyer somewhere in there who will just splash pretty much any pot, possibly getting some additional callers, but you're really even there more likely to just take it down on the flop on most boards. I think the checkraise actually makes it easier for some good hands to lay down.

If I can go into a little greater detail:

1) Raggedy flop. Let's say you have 55 on a board of 953 (rainbow or not). Well, you may have 67 in there who has no business folding and might raise. Also A9s is perfectly legit, and lots of people even play A9o. If the board is even more raggedy, you may have a made straight (the more compressed it gets toward the low side, the more likely this becomes), who's likely to give you a chance to pair the board if he isn't careful. Anyhow, my main point is that if no one has anything at all, the best you can really do anyway is just gain a little more from someone who decides to splash, and you risk getting outdrawn if you let the thing go too far.

2) High card flop. Say, A65 and you have 55. Well, AQ or even AJ really should try a raise to find out where they're at. 87s might try the same move (I would, although most players won't). Then you have a choice of flat calling the raise or re-raising, depending on what you put them on. AQ is in any case on a very slippery slope if you call (obviously) with your set, then bet the turn. It takes a very good player to lay down AQ to a turn bet in that situation.

Anyhow, my main conclusion is simply that a set is a good hand with which to invite opponents to do battle and where you do still have to watch how the board is developing. If no one has any piece of the flop, so be it. But the real issue is getting things set up where SOMETIMES you can take a full stack (and can lay down when you're beat). Getting these battles set up properly is imo worth the risk of just taking down a pot uncontested at times, even though it feels like you've wasted your set when the field just folds.

Also, who knows, you might have gotten runner-runnered by KK for the flush with an all-in on the flop where you were ahead. But, if so, all-in on the flop with set vs. big pair is clearly very +EV for the set.

Both plays look kind of standard to me.

I've pulled that play with KK and AA in hand #1 more then a couple of times.


Hand #2 i would check raise or lead out because there is so many cards to slow down your action on the turn.

Thats what Ive been doing Kenny, but people keep folding and Im not getting deep enough into the hand to make enough money with my sets in raised pots to cover all the times I miss.

I play both hands exactly the same. Hand #2 you just got unlucky.

#2 I really can't see the merits of slowplaying that flop. If he has a high pair, he will try to protect it against the flush draw, so you get paid. If he has two high cards, he could be drawing to the flush and you're giving him a free card, if he's not drawing, all the hearts will probably cause him to shut down on the turn. By giving a free card, the only good thing that can happen is allowing him to hit a non-heart pair on the turn. Assuming he has AK, that's like 1:11 to happen, ie: not very likely. I think it's better to just bet out here, hope for a raise or a call, but don't mind too much if he folds. If there wasn't a flush draw I'd be much more inclined to slowplay it.

Ice, I personally get in the most trouble when I start slowplaying/limping with monsters because I've seen them all fold too many times.

For me I try to remember that for every fold to my strength, there is no suckout to rob me, no suckout to put me on tilty, and someone who's probably thinking, "man he can't have it again? I'm calling his next strong bet."

TR

Im not limping with KK because Im afraid they will fold. Im limping to win a big pot with a disguised hand.

I win much more money with AA and KK by limping UTG than by playing any other way from any other position.

The biggest problem with raising UTG is not that everyone folds..its that everyone calls getting better and better pot odds as each person calls. In smaller games raising is probably correct, but in bigger games, people will call with any pair, suited connectors and all kinds of other stuff if they like the pot odds theyre getting.

Ice I think this is an interesting post in regards to not getting enough action on your sets. I have been thinking about this problem for hours lately because I basically feell like I play this game to hit sets, and then when I can't get value out of them it pretty much sucks. I wanted to ask you what your conclusions were from the set analysis you mentioned you were doing as far as sets in un-raised vs. raised pots etc.

Based on the amount of money I won pre set in raised pots, I dont think you should call more than a 5 BB raise after limping.....or a 4BB raise if you are cold calling....if the pot is heads up.

If there are other callers or you expect there to be, then you can call almost any normal raise (up to 6-7BBs) as long as stacks are big enough of course.

In other words if youre on the button with 88 and UTG raises to $12 and its folded to you. You both have $200.. Based on what I learned, I think you need to fold unless you want to try to take the pot away from him. If youre playing for a set, its not worth it based on my study. You just dont make enough when you hit to justify the call n my opinion. Of course there are other factors, like playing against a guy who just refuses to fold AA no matter what the action is...or a guy who folds to easy to pressure.