Playing some 10/20 NL on Party, I have built my stack up to $5800, thanks to a set of tens and a set of jacks. My opponent in this hand has $3800. He has shown that he can be a loose player - playing J5s against a raise. Also, he didnt seem scared to put his money in the pot - he was willing to gamble.

I get my absolute favorite hand, in MP. I open raise to 80. Folds to Villian on the button who min-raises to 140. Blinds fold and I call. 310 in the pot.

Flop . Pot = 310. I check, he bets 300. I flat call.

Turn . Pot = 910. I check again, he bets 750, leaving him with 2610.

Are my implied odds so big here that I have to call this? I hate calling pot-sized bets on the turn with a draw only - but if I hit - I'm pretty sure that I'll be able to take his stack, which is substantial. Is this a call?

Thanks

D

Well, let's think about this and see where we get.

6 outs where you definitely take his stack (the straight outs that do not make your flush).

7 outs where you definitely take at least a big hunk of his stack (the 7 hearts that do not pair the board).

2 outs where you could be in big trouble (2 hearts that do pair the board).

31 cards that miss you entirely

You have to call $750. Pot is currently $1660. The rest of his stack is about $2610.

6 times you win $1660 + $2610 = $4270. 6 * $4270 = +$25,620
7 times you win $1660 + say $1000 more = $2,660. 7 * $2,660 = +$18,620

Say you break even, on average, on the 2 hearts that pair the board hit (be conservative)

31 times you lose $750. 31 * $750 = -$23,250

Total: $25,620 + $18,620 - $23,250 = +$20,990. Divide by 46 = $456 average win per call.

I make the call. You almost have enough outs to make it worthwhile without looking at implied odds. However, I have a question about this type of question (i.e., +EV but HUGE variance play).

1) Why do most people assume you will be able to take the other guy's stack? Has he been loose? Any data or observations to support his not folding? Sure most people struggle to let go of a good hand, but I know many players that do. That being said shouldn't we calculate implied odds with say 70% of his stack (i.e., he won't let go 70% of the time).

2) I find I can only play this type of poker when I'm really running well. It might be +EV, but when you lose most of your stack (which you will more times than not) can you handle the emotional swings assocaited with that. Personally, I look to avoid these and would rather pick a.... calmer spot. Just personal preference. A person making that call ought to recognize the swings and if they are already on or near tilt, losing this type of hand could lead to multiplied losses on future hands. That's negative implied odds.

TR

I think that if you hit your 6 non-flush straight cards you're pretty much guaranteed his stack. He'll probably valuebet the river with his AA or KK unless the flush hits, and will NEVER see the backdoor straight so he'll happily call your all-in.

He may very well pay off a decent bet on the river if your flush hits, but it's very doubtful that you'll stack him.

If you hit a flush and the board pairs (ie: or you probably need to fold to a bet though.

Anyway, yes, I think the implied odds makes this into a call.

I would move all-in. Not because it's a good play...but because I'm an idiot who doesn't read posts properly. In fact..it's amazing I'm a winning player with anaysis like this. Maybe I should go shoot myself now.

Nice correction guys. That mini raise preflop gives his hand away.

I'm gonna go shoot myself now...see ya later.

All due respect, I think that is pretty bad advíce. Villain *re-raised* preflop and BTP on both the flop and turn. This says he has AA/KK (at the very least AK), he won't fold any of those hands, so by going all-in you should have zero fold equity and turn a +EV situation into a very -EV one.

Trodgers -

I assume I will be able to take the guys stack b/c -
(1) I am 100% certain he has AA, KK or AK here - and thus has a monster hand.
(2) He min-re-raised me preflop - Which indicates to me that he is not a very good player.
(3) My hand is very well disguised. He probably puts me on AQ or AK here. There is no way he can put me on a flush draw here, as the and the are accounted for. And the straight draw? Forget about it - no way he sees that one coming.

On the river, the pot will be $2400, and he will have $2600 left. Just putting myself in the other guys shoes - if he has AA or KK here - I just dont see how he can lay it down on the river - even if the flush comes. He MIGHT be able to fold AK to an all-in, but I doubt it.

Kenny -

Re-raising all-in here is very bad, IMO. I have zero folding equity - he is certain to have AA, KK or AK here, and no way he is laying any of those down. Major -EV move. I am all for pushing with big draws - but for me to do that on the turn, I need some major folding equity. Frankly, none exists here.

D

yikes...good call stone...I did not see that min reraise preflop.

Actually, considering he díd in fact mini-re-raise preflop, that does indicate a player who's bad enough to call even though the flush arrives. It does however also negate the "The A and K of the suit is out so he shouldn't be drawing", since he likely doesn't think about that. Most likely, if the flush arrives, he'll grit his teeth, call, and complain about his bad beat.

I would like this hand alot more if he was a blind which would mean youre in position.

As it stands, if a flush card (that doesnt pair the board) hits, your going to have to push all in. You wont be able to check to him because unless hes a total idiot, hes going to check behind.

He might call your all in, but its going to be a $2610 call for him with a $2410 pot. Thats a pretty tough call even with top set. I dont think you can say he will call it every time when you do the EV calcs. I would think its closer to 70% of the time.

If he has AK, it might drop to 30%.

I think I fold, but I dont like it at all.

I do think you have the odds to call. So what did you do?

I'm curious how you would have gone about extracting all of his money out of position. How much of his stack would you have bet assuming you hit your 1. flush 2. straight. With the straight would you try to check/raise? If the board pairs a heart do you still lead on the river? How much?

If he hits his straight on the river he can check-raise OR just push, doesn't matter.

If he hits the flush he has to lead.

If the board pairs it's an easy check/fold, wheter he has a flush or not. With a bit of lucky, maybe AK checks behind...

I think if a flush comes it gives him more incentive to call. He can't think Droqqa is simply calling these pot sized bets with a flush draw or something that has a flush draw in it. He has to have played with him and seen that he's likely to bet a draw or fold it and not simply call it down and bet when it hits. I think the inverse is true in that if the flush comes and droqqa "represents" the flush and bets the scare card the other player will quickly chalk it up to just that... betting a scare card thats very illogical to have helped his hand. I think he still calls off his stack with AA, KK or AK here... I mean how could you not in that situation? If I were him, holding those hands, I'd be hard pressed not to call myself with the non-nut hand.

With AK, he has to be afraid of the flush AND AA, KK and even 66.

Making it on the turn and getting a big bet, you should probably fold it, but let's see.

Ok, you check-call the flop and call the turn. What can he put you on? I'd be very confused in his shoes at this point. Maybe you have AK and just aren't sure whether he has a big set or another AK. I do think you have disguised your hand extremely well here.

If he has AA or KK, which would really seems likely to me if he weren't so loose, then I think you stack him every time if you can hit your draw. With AK maybe not 100%, but possible. On the other hand, he's very loose. Could he have mini-raised AQ and bet like that?

Anyhow, on the AA/KK scenario, I do think you have the implied odds (barely). I just don't see him laying those hands down here. But I think his looseness speaks against the call. Surely he's laying down AQ unless he's absolutely horrible.

I think you should probably just lay it down, but I wonder if it wouldn't have been better here to put him to the test on the flop. If you bet into him, I'd say that's a clear representation of AK on your part. The problem with calling that big bet on the turn is that you just don't know whether his hand is strong enough for a guaranteed stacking if you hit the straight or flush. I'd need to know for a fact that he has at least AK in order to make that call, I think.