I've had my suspicions about Full Tilt in the first place. There seems to be some kind of bullshit going on every hand. But what I saw in this tournament today was just way to over the top. How statistically improbable are the things that I'm witnessing?

1st hand of a tournament, guy open-shoves for 1500, everyone folds.

2nd hand of the tournament, he does it again and gets called by KK.
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Satellite to FTOPS Event #1
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (1500)
UTG+1 (1500)
MP1 (1545)
MP2 (1500)
MP3 (1500)
CO (1500)
Hero (1485)
SB (1470)
BB (1500)

Blinds: 15/30

Pre-flop: (45, 9 players) Hero is BTN [8c]
SB says "ah nh", UTG raises to 120, 1 fold, MP1 goes all-in 1545, 3 folds, Hero folds, SB calls 1455, 1 fold, UTG folds
87.30% (EV = $1307.89)
12.70% (EV = -$1156.38)

Flop: [7d][Qd] (3182, 2 players)
81.60% (EV = $2602.22)
18.40% (EV = $563.04)

Turn: (3189, 2 players)
88.60% (EV = $2831.66)
11.40% (EV = $348.84)

River: (3196, 2 players)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)
100.00% (EV = $3060.00)

Final Pot: 3090
SB shows: [Kh]
MP1 shows: [9c]

MP1 wins 3165 ( won +1620 )
SB lost -1470
UTG lost -120


Wow. Ok, maybe that's gonna happen once in a rare while, but take a look at this.
forum/viewtopic.php?t=29442
This is the 3rd time I've seen someone go out of their mind nuts with 93 in the past few weeks and they were crushed all 3 times.
They WON all 3 times.

Not done. Not nearly........

Hand 3 - folded
Hand 4 - normal raise, everyone folds
Hand 5 - in BB, shove vs PFR - called by AK. He hits flush with J8o
So far we've got 13%, 31% - win, win

Hand 6 - Open-shove again, all fold
Hand 7 - folded
Hand 8 - open-min-raise, all fold
Hand 9 - normal raise, all fold
Hand 10 - re-raise shove, his A7o loses to 99.
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L)

Hand 11 - 3% on the flop, but we'll give him the full 45% he had when he got it in preflop.
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Satellite to FTOPS Event #1
8 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (1455)
UTG+1 (3265)
MP1 (1380)
MP2 (1440)
CO (1635)
Hero (1440)
SB (1425)
BB (3005)

Blinds: 15/30

Pre-flop: (45, 8 players) Hero is BTN [5d]
UTG calls 30, UTG+1 goes all-in 3265, 3 folds, Hero folds, 2 folds, UTG calls 1425
55.20% (EV = $1186.32)
44.80% (EV = -$1130.28)

Flop: [4h][8s] (4785, 2 players)
96.80% (EV = $4639.62)
3.20% (EV = $152.48)

Turn: (4793, 2 players)
81.80% (EV = $3920.67)
18.20% (EV = $867.23)

River: (4793, 2 players)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)
100.00% (EV = $4765.00)

Final Pot: 2955
UTG shows: [6c]
UTG+1 shows: [9s]

UTG+1 wins 4765 ( won +1500 )
UTG lost -1455


13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W)

Hand 12: I limp call his shove from BB. My A9 > J6o
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L)

Hands 13, 14: Shove, all fold
Hand 15: 3-way all-in. Loses 84s to QQ and A9
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L)

Hands 16, 17, 18: Shove, all fold
Hand 19: Actually shoves and gets called by a worse hand. His Q5s > 87s of same suit
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L), 56% (W)

Hand 20: Gets called by ATo. His J4s is good.
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L), 56% (W), 39% (W)

Hand 21: shove, all fold
Hand 22: just calls raise, ch/fold flop
Hand 23: normal raise, checks down to river. hits straight, pushes, loses to BB J9o boat.
Hands 24, 25: shove, all fold
Hand 26: this is just a flat out joke. Not only is he now 2 for 2 against KK, but he's even dominated by the 3rd player and wins.
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L), 56% (W), 39% (W), 6% (W)

No Limit Holdem Tournament
Satellite to FTOPS Event #1
8 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (2765)
UTG+1 (4320)
MP1 (5265)
MP2 (1275)
CO (3520)
BTN (1380)
Hero (2850)
BB (1120)

Blinds: 20/40

Pre-flop: (60, 8 players) Hero is SB [4c]
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 120, MP1 goes all-in 5265, 1 fold, CO calls 3520, 1 fold, Hero folds, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls 4200
12.30% (EV = $1799.05)
59.00% (EV = $4405.51)
4.80% (EV = -$4632.12)
23.90% (EV = $14.57)

Flop: [Tc][7h] (14789, 3 players)
70.00% (EV = $10357.20)
15.90% (EV = $2096.41)
14.10% (EV = $2086.24)

Turn: (14796, 3 players)
73.80% (EV = $10919.45)
14.30% (EV = $1885.45)
11.90% (EV = $1760.72)

River: (14796, 3 players)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)
100.00% (EV = $13185.00)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)

Final Pot: 12220
UTG+1 shows: [Kd]
MP1 shows: [Jd]
CO shows: [Jc]

MP1 wins 13165 ( won +7900 )
UTG+1 lost -4320
CO lost -3520

Hand 27: reshoves over shove with 74o. Loses to flush vs KTs.
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L), 56% (W), 39% (W), 6% (W), 29% (L)

Notice how few flops are ever missed entirely.

Hands 28, 29: folds preflop
Hand 30: free ride in the BB
Hand 31: Shoves over PFR and PFRR. T6s > AKo
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L), 56% (W), 39% (W), 6% (W), 29% (L), 41% (W)

Hand 32: folds preflop
Hand 33: Limps in, calls, flop, turn, shoves river, opponent folds
Hand 34: shoves, all fold
Hand 35: folds preflop
Hand 36: open-shoves. I call with AJ and beat his Q8o.
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L), 56% (W), 39% (W), 6% (W), 29% (L), 41% (W), 36% (L)

Hand 37: Open-shoves. Gets called by KK and cracks the hand with 2 undercards for 3rd time. Q9s > KK.
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L), 56% (W), 39% (W), 6% (W), 29% (L), 41% (W), 36% (L), 20% (W)

Hand 38: Open shoves [8c], I call [Qs]. He wins, I'm done
13% (W), 31% (W), 30% (L), 45% (W), 37% (L), 16% (L), 56% (W), 39% (W), 6% (W), 29% (L), 41% (W), 36% (L), 20% (W), 38% (W)

His final stat in 40 hands in PT.
80/75 100 WTSD
He made the final table and won the seat.

In the 13 hands he got called all-in, he went 9-5 and was only a favorite in 1 (56%).
In order of lowest equity to highest......
6% - W
13% - W
16% - L
20% - W
29% - L
30% - L
31% - W
36% - L
37% - L
38% - W
39% - W
41% - W
45% - W
56% - W

So my question is, does Full Tilt ever get tired of their own bullshit?
He won 3 out of the 4 hands he got in 20% or less (I'm not even counting the one he got in at 45% but was like 3% after opponent flopped a set and he won that too)
He won 4 of the 7 hands he got in as 2 to 1 dog or worse
He won all 4 hands he got in 38% to 45% + the 1 he got in a slight favorite.

RNG investigation anyone?

I heard a rumor that someone claimed to have won with the best hand on Full Tilt last week. It's unconfirmed though.

If this didn't happen at times I would be concerned it wasn't random enough...