by Aisthesis » Sat Jun 25, 2005 4:02 pm
I really do it on a hand-by-hand basis. I just ask myself whether the play was good or bad given the player, and on your AKs, I wouldn't be at all sure.
Here's the hand that got me started, against a guy who overplays a lot of hands, but doesn't get way out on a limb with bluffs typically. He's actually very readable and has been playing this game for the last week--still trying to find an opportunity to stack him.
I have JT and bet a TX3 (2 spades) flop from LP, get minimum check-raised by this guy. Well, it's fairly obvious I'm behind to all kinds of stuff, but I call the raise to $60. So, now we have $150 in the pot. He bets $40 into me on the turn, and I raise to $120. He calls--he has 33, as really should have been obvious. Now, the river is the 3rd spade, and he bets $100 into me (no paired board). I FINALLY fold it.
So, I figure I lost $150 unnecessarily here. But note his play. He doesn't protect his set very well here at all. Obviously, I wouldn't have raised the turn like that had I been on the spade draw, but it would have been an easy call. And he bet the river as if he had the nuts (at least my analysis).
Another hand against the same player (this one I didn't count but probably should have): I have KJo in BB. Flop comes J-high with 2 hearts. I bet out pot ($30), and he raises to $90 with the comment "I'm checking your kicker." (I had made a remark like that earlier after a hand on which we split the pot) I went ahead and called the extra $60, probably not a very good play. He said he had AJ and probably did. Now, the turn is Ah, making a possible flush (and 2 pair for him, I'm assuming). We both check. Again, I don't think this was a very good play on his part. I think he needed to bet that turn fairly hard (I obviously fold) for flush info. Now, the river comes a 4th heart, and I unfortunately don't have the right K here. Now he bets big, and I fold.
Anyhow, this one was a little dubious on my part, but I don't think just overtly wrong. K-kicker isn't that bad, and I'm in BB anyway, with possible serious kicker issues (although I wouldn't have bet out, but I don't think he's fully aware of that yet). So, I could say that I lost $60 unnecessarily there, too, but I don't think my play was just completely off-base here--maybe just a little on the "struggling" side.
Yet another (against the same player) was where I semi-bluffed a nut flush draw (Ac3c), he flat calls (I think with weak TP), then I end up making a straight on the turn, which I bet and he again calls (he made 2 pair). There was only one card missing on the river to get overstraighted, so I checked the river, and he fired out $90, which I called and won. I wonder there whether I should have tried to stack him (definitely would have given it a shot with the flush), but my straight was a little on the risky side. I should have looked at the board a little more carefully to see if it made any sense at all for him to have me over-straighted--in which case I did miss a nice river bet, as I think he would have called away everything with the 2 pair. But I didn't count that one either. Objectively, I really didn't have enough hand to raise or move in on the river, although possibly so against this particular player.
So, basically, I'm only counting clear stupidity here. I think both the KJ and the A3 straight were imo "controversial" but not outlandish, and I was having a really rough night catching anything at all. The JT was pretty horrible play (although it did give me some insight into how this guy plays a set).
I think one lesson to learn from several of these is: At least have some outs against the suspected hand you're up against, and against a set, I actually had none except something like runner-runner boat or such. On the KJ, even if he does have AJ, as I assume, I at least have 3 real outs when I call on the flop--although I'm not really defending the call on that basis.