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Small full house facing all in raise on river, help!

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Small full house facing all in raise on river, help!

Postby greggabe » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:18 am

Alright, I need help here. I bet the river small as a value bet and thinking I should probably fold if he pushes. Then he pushes! ARGHH! I know that there are not many hands that I beat that he can do this with. I my plan here is to fold to the push. But I figure AJ not out of the question, neither is A10. I'm a little worried about JJ, but no pf raise and this guy was about a %6pf raiser. But my head is SCREAMING J10! I really thought that is what he had. But then I thought about those hands he has that I can beat and that I have a boat. And then I didn't know what to do. So do you call here?

I guess in hindsight I should have bet more on the flop right? But occassionaly I like to throw less than pot bets with strong hands so my smaller continuation bets are better concealed. Either way $2 more dollars probably doesn't change this hand much.
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed)

MP2 ($104.70)
MP3 ($95)
CO ($93.50)
Button ($66)
SB ($104.05)
BB ($321.75)
UTG ($114.90)
Hero ($90.90)
UTG+2 ($44.90)
MP1 ($41)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with [6h], [6c].
1 fold, Hero calls $1, 3 folds, MP3 calls $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) [6d], [Td], [Jh] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3, MP3 calls $3, CO calls $3, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($14) [Ts] (3 players)
Hero bets $10, MP3 folds, CO calls $10.

River: ($34) [5h] (2 players)
Hero bets $20, CO bets $77 all in, HERO?!?!?!?!
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Postby SideSwipe » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:43 am

I'd call. :oops:

I think he's only got trips, most likely AT. And I reckon he thinks you've got an overpair or two pair with Jx.
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Postby BigPhish » Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:28 am

I think I play this a bit faster.

The flop brings your set but also 2 diamonds. I bet the full pot at it.

The turn brings your boat; you're no longer worried about the flush. I bet 1/3 to 1/2 the pot, no more. At this point I hope he's drawing to the flush and he makes it on the river. If I get re-raised, I'm all-in. If he one of the 4 hands that beats me, he gets my stack. That's poker.

This play might also make it look to my opponent like I'm drawing at a flush, especially if he doesn't raise me, or raises small, on the turn.

River is a bummer - can't possibly help him. My play depends on my read on my opponent. If I think he'll raise a weak-looking bet (which he did), I'll make a weak one. If he raises, our stacks are going in the middle. If I don't think he'll raise a weak bet, I bet the pot. Again, either way, he just might think I was drawing at the flush, missed, and now I'm trying to bluff him out.

The way you bet it, he probably isn't giving you credit for the boat. I'd probably bet $57 that he doesn't have a bigger boat.

But that also depends on my read on him and my table image, if I think he's capable of reading me. If he is, and I've been pushed off pots with big raises, I'm definitely pushing in here.

If he's capable of making the read and I've consistently re-raised raisers, I just might fold. It's tough to fold a boat though.

Think about it this way too: he has to have JJ, TT, JT, or T6 to beat you; that's it. The first two are unlikely and the last means he's a moron and you'll get your cash back before long.

What did you do? What was the result?
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:42 am

Im not folding.
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Postby T-Rod » Thu Jun 23, 2005 8:45 am

I'd almost never fold a full boat when I flopped my set. I'd call and not really be too worried. I'd say you're in the 90% range for winning. I think in 35,000 hands I might have lost only 1 or 2 times with a flopped set full boat.


Now if you have a board that is like J,5,9,J,5 or something like that and you have A,5 in your hand (for the little full) and someone went all against me on the river... this one I'd fold (especially if he bet at the pot on the flop telling you he probably has the J).
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Postby greggabe » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:03 am

THANKS GUYS, even though my gut was really telling me that he had J10, I just couldn't fold. I only slightly underbet the pot on the turn and the river and I don't think betting a couple more bucks would have changed anything here. I figured if he didn't have the J10 then he likely had AJ or A10 and I didn't want to push AJ out, that's why I underbet the river, just trying to get some value out of my hand. I had been raised of a few hands on this table on the turn to raises when I was firing second bullets (not by this guy though), so I thought he may be trying to push me around a bit as well.

So I call and he shows me J10 and I curse myself for not trusting my instincts more. But now I am glad that you guys concur that this is not one that is going to be very easy to get away from despite my instinct.

Is there a way I could have played this to get away from it though. If I bet pot the whole way ,including river,I am pot committed on the river so I don't think that would have worked. Even if I bet pot on flop and turn and then under bet the river or even possibly checked the river I probably can't get away from it either right? Oh well, I don't mind losing my stack when I don't make a dumb play I just wanted to make sure that you guys concur this is a stack loser.

Thanks again!
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Postby laynegt » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:04 am

you're getting better than 2:1 and I really think JT will raise on the flop. AT or KT is likely. call!
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Postby greggabe » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:29 am

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Postby BigPhish » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:05 am

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Postby iceman5 » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:06 am

If you NEVER fold a set (barring an obvious straight or flush on the board) you will make money.

Sets are my biggest money makers by a long shot. You will only lose about 10-15% of the time when you hit a set if you play it correctly.

As soon as you hit a set, you need to do whatever you think is best to get the most amount of money possible into the pot (barring an obvious str8 or flush).

If you lose to a higher set or a guy hits a higher boat with a 4 outer, more power to him.

I lost set over set which turned to quads today and I'll funnel money into that pot every time. I had 33...357 flop. Turn 5. He had 55 and wasnt in a blind so Im willing to disregard the possiblilty of him having 64.
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