by Aisthesis » Tue Jun 21, 2005 3:42 am
Well, in practice I could well have played this hand almost exactly the same way, but I'm trying to get this kind of flop play out of my game.
I really like a bigger flop raise. $32 seems just about right to me. In doing this, you really look a lot more like AT or KT rather than set, to begin with (hands with which I'd also make the same play). And I'd also like to play 97s and AhXh exactly the same way. But, again, as you know, I'm also trying to set up some plays with various players with whom I play quite a bit. Nonetheless, I don't think a big raise on the set is such a bad idea--even though it seems like a waste if they fold.
Honestly, the minimum raise-type stuff seems to me to scare away the hands that you really WANT to be in (TP type hands) but not the hands that you don't want in there.
It's very unfortunate that the board got so completely screwball on you, as I'd be interested to know what this guy did have. If he had his flush on the turn, he played it pretty nicely, I think.
The real difficulty on the turn, I think, results from some unclarity with regard to the read (and, believe me, I know I'm wrong about mine often enough not to want to just ASSUME I'm right about it). I think you really have two choices: If you don't think he has the flush, I think with the set, you need to bet full pot on the turn (or even a slight overbet) and see what happens (now, imo, you look like you just made your flush with a suited connector--i.e., non-nut flush). If you do think there's a decent chance he already has the flush (I really wouldn't think that either, given the flop betting), then just check and try to improve.
Anyhow, if he check-raises a full pot-sized bet on the turn, I doubt I can call it, although I'd have to look carefully at implied odds if he makes a minimum check-raise (if he has the flush and the board pairs, I have little doubt that you can stack him).