$1/$2 NL at Prima Hero ($305) UTG ($200) MP($350)

UTG min raises, MP who Ive just started seeing alot and he appears pretty good, reraises to $12. I call on the button with [Kd]. UTG calls also.

Pot is $39. The flop comes [4d][2h]. UTG checks, MP bets $30. Whats your play here?

I think MP has TT-AA and possibly AK. If he was short stacked I would push all in, but we have fairly large stacks and theres no way I would push with a set there, although it would still be tough for him to call with less than AA.

Also, if I flat call, I allow UTG to possibly call which gives me good odds for my nut flush draw.

Call or raise?
Turn action to follow a little later.

I say call. Implied odds are good since he can't put you on diamonds after calling a raise and reraise preflop.

I'm liking a call here too, you have the possibility of increasing the odds on your draw, a raise is only gonna be good if the guy has AK, if he goes back over the top it's gonna be a tough situation. Let's see what the turn holds for us.

What about min raising here, to (possibly) buy a free card on the turn? It would be cheaper than calling another bet on the turn, and this way you also find out if UTG is slowplaying something, if he comes along you have to be careful.

If you just call, isn't it going to look more like drawing to the flush? In that case your implied odds are not that good, because if a flush card hits he's not going to pay you more. On the other hand, if you min raise and then take a free card on the turn, that looks like a flush draw as well.

Playing draws is something I have to work more on, both out of position and in position. I'm not 100% which play is best here, but if I knew Villain will be slowed down by a min raise and I get a free turn, I like the min raise. If Villain is a good aggr player who can see through that and will bet again on the turn, I prefer a call.

Hmm.. if you raise and the flush doesn't hit on the turn, you can't call a bet and if you check behind your draw will be so obvious that you don't get paid. It would seem that the most EV from that situation comes from both opponents folding, which (probably) won't happen often enough to make it profitable.

Flat calling to se what UTG does seems attractive... how can he call though? If he has a set he's got to raise, if he doesn't he must fold... the flush is the only reasonable draw and you have it.. the only thing he could possibly call here with would be an over-pair.. which would also seem weird...

Ah well, I vote for flat calling anyway. If you hit, you should be able to milk it, giving you the implied odds needed, and your A (and K) might still be good (probably not though) which would actually make you a favorite.

OK, so I called and UTG folded.

The pot is now $99. The turn is the . He thinks for a while and checks.
Now Im starting to narrow his hands down to TT, JJ and AK.

I havent played with him enough to know what he will do if I bet. I assume that he would fold AK, but dont know what he does with TT or JJ if I bet $50 or more.

Whats your play?

What if you raise to something like $150? It's a bit of an overbet but.....

That way he can't reraise you off the hand because you have so much money in the pot....and you still get great folding equity.

I think I like that play.

OK, but if you raised to $150 and he called, are you checking the turn behind him or pushing it in?

If you check, you win the small pot 32% of time, when you hit the flush or one of your overcards, assuming he indeed has TT/JJ. If he has AK, you split the pot on the non-flush outs.

I would be inclined to bet, and bet about 3/4 pot instead of 1/2, so there's a better chance he folds. If he check-raises all in, I would probably fold. You have to call 188 and the pot is 422, so 1:2.24. The odds of making your hand are 1:3.06. If he calls, I would fold to a bet on the river.

Betting $80 or so should make him fold TT-JJ and AK (good), he'll probably call with QQ-AA and you'll have 9-15 outs and *should* get a free showdown. He should have TT-JJ and AK more often than KK-AA and that together with your outs should make this a +EV play, right?