Moved this from my journal so it could get some traffic.

Here's one where I just don't know if I should have laid it down or not.

5/10 NL, I'm about $3k deep and the other guy is at $2k. I make a shits-and-giggles LP limp with . Villain is on the button. Flop looks good- . Six of us in it. Guy to my right, who is short at about $350, bets about $45. I didn't see any point in raising him since he doesn't have any money. I flat call, so does the villain on the button. Turn is a brick, and shorty pushes. I flat call again.

A word about the villain in this hand before we get to his action. He's a middle-aged Middle-Eastern guy (gee, just a few of those at the Bike). Earlier in the day he called the guy next to him a fucking asshole and threatened to fight him, not sure why. He was nearly bounced then. He's also showed down a few bluffs, and I called it every time since they were fairly obvious. He's calmed down by now but basically, he's an idiot.

After I call the $300 he raises to $1000. Now I am about 90% sure he has a flush here. There is some small chance he has the , likely with a pair, but like I said- I'm about 90% sure he has a flush. So the only real question is who has the better flush. Plus he's got another $1000 that is obviously going in eventually.

And for the record, I didn't have a care in the world what the shorty had but I know it wasn't a flush.

I was thinking about the kinds of cards he could hold if he had the flush. He's the type who could have any two suited cards in this spot, but regardless, it seemed my made it slightly more likely that he has a suited connector or one-gapper type of hand; the was on the board and me having the means I didn't have the 6, 7, or 8. It also means that he either has to have two broadways or his flush (assuming it's better than mine) is seriously-gapped. Not that I can't put him on that, it's just something to shave some % points off of this.

Also in my mind is that since I'm first to act, if the board pairs on the river I can push and there is a tiny chance he would fold a flush. Not a big chance, not a medium chance, but a tiny chance. Again it's just something to shave a point or two off of it.

So I called, the river was a brick, and all the money went in. He has .

Still can't decide if I just got coolered or if this is one of those hands that divides the good players from the great ones.

If you are almost positive he has a flush then based on that information alone this seems like a laydown.

If you were not sure he had the flush then I could see stacking off here.

I think this is reason #98134756123947 not to play preflop with crap cards when you're deep. Play two cards that can make the nuts, not cards that at best will make second-best hands you can't get away from.

I'm definitely folding the turn here. Your analysis is excellent. If he has two hearts the odds are against them being 8x or worse. Plus if he does have the baby flush he will be more likely to be scared of you having a better flush. Reverse implied odds and all that.