2/4 NL

Table was pretty loose. Had never seen my opponent before..and he had just jumped on the table..i had no read. I have him covered.. he has $300


I'm on the button with [6d]. Bunch of limpers...CO min raises to $8. I call along with all the limpers.

FLOP $38
AK9 rainbow

All 3 players check to me. I check as well. These players are loose..and i figure anyone of them could be planning a checkraise or slowplaying something.


TURN $38
AK96 completing rainbow

I now have two pair. MP1 bets $4. Limper and preflop raiser call. I raise to $40. MP1 calls.

RIVER $126
AK96T

MP1 checks

So bet or not?? I ended up betting $80...I really considered just checking though. I was folding to a raise.

Results later.

I probably would have bet the flop to see where I am at. If they were slowplaying something then it's pretty easy to get away from on the flop. Once you got to this river though I like the value bet and as you said I fold to the raise there. The only problem is that A10, and A9 both have you beat but wouldn't he have popped the turn again with A9? I think you make this bet and hope he pays you off with a worse A. I don't think he has you beat here, but since you posted this hand I am probably wrong.

I'm going to say value bet this..... The reason being: You aren't risking getting bluffed here. I think a higher two pair will just call here, and even if they are out of line in re-raising this river, it still beats your 2 pair.

No one is going to bluff you off the hand with that scary of a board, and you representing a set..... so it's really a risk free value bet here, IMO. When there's little to no chance that someone will bluff you off a pot, that's the best time to make a value bet. He made a strange call on the turn which I'm reading as just an ace. Since I'm thinking he might have called with one pair on the turn to a pot sized bet, he'll likely call a 1/2 pot bet on the river.

The fact that it's a rainbow board would incline you to value bet here, if there was a flush draw out there you could make a much better case for checking behind.

But, like Ice, I too am confused as to what he has.

Basically, you have to compare the odds of him fearing a set and having a higher two pair, with the odds of him calling with a weaker ace. I think it's slightly more likely he has a weaker ace, so I like the value bet. He bet $4 into a 30 dollar pot, then just called and checked when someone raised him big. If he was slowplaying a set, I think he re-raises you on the turn, and if he had a better 2 pair, I think he bets more than $4 on the turn.

Interesting anaylsis palman. turns out you were right on.

He held A7o for a bare pair of aces with a garbage kicker. He even called taht $80 bet. Obviously..I marked him as a calling station immeditaltely after the hand.

The situation is so medicore....i'm still not convinced the bet was the correct play. I really had no idea what he held. At first I thought the bare ace like you said...but the board was so cooridinated by the river...ugh..

IMO, the only hand he can have that beats you is A10. I think he leads out stronger on the turn with A9 and AK, I think he re-raises you with a set on the turn (and even if not, he doesn't check the river) thus since we're deducing he simply has an ace, he's shown he's a calling station by calling the turn.

I usually only make it another 40 here, but like the value bet. I figure 1/3 of the pot is right about where I need to be for the times he shows me something screwy. Although with your raise 80 seems fine too, he would definitely get noted as calling 2/3 pot value bets and I might even start trying pot sized ones against him in the future.