You called $50 on the flop and $120 on the turn. i think you're better off raising the flop to $170 and checking behind on the turn if he calls the flop and you miss the turn.

You have a decent amount of FE against something like 99. He will fold AK / AQ type hands almost every time, where he might fire again on the turn with them and you dont know where youre at.

If he shoves after your flop raise you can call if you want because I believe you have odds vs an overpair.

As played, I would check behind the river. he has no reason to think you have a K so i doubt he'll fold TT+

First of all, thanks for the great post! Interesting stuff.

Second, I agree that I don't like the turn call. The odds just aren't there. And because of what happened on the turn, I have to question what you wrote about the flop. Ice is right: raise that flop and check behind on the turn if necessary.

I don't think the K is a good scare card. QQ/JJ is basically never afraid of AK here. As played I definitely check behind on the river.

Ohhhhh, I just realized the completes the flush. That's why it's a scare card. A ton of people do play SCs to raises these days.... If this guy seems nitty enough to fold then yeah I like a big river bet. Your flop call is partly justified by the idea of bluffing a flush card ... so you really ought to bluff the flush card!

Calling the flop is fine if youre going to fold the turn if he bets again. Most live players arent going to 2 barrell with an unimproved AK / AQ.

I still prefer to raise the flop though.