$200NL 6-max @ FT

villain is Pfunk. good 20/18 aggressive multitabler. he raises OTB to $7. i call from the blinds w/ 44.

flop: [8s][7c]
pot: $15

check, he fires $10. i CR to $30.

turn:
pot: $75

i bet $56

he folds to flop raises 50% of the time according to PAhud over 400 hands. he also goes to SD only 15% of the time. he's probably able to fold overpairs in various situations when he thinks he's behind. and i think with any big hand or big draw he has to 3-bet that flop.

thoughts?

jon

I don't like your flop CR..... a lot of people aren't CB that flop if they didn't catch a piece (I wouldn't).

You're in a bad spot now. That's not a good turn card for you to fire again IMO.

yeah but i think this guy might even fold KK here. pretty sure on QQ/JJ and certainly 9-x.

Well if you have a read that he's folding JJ/QQ then so be it, but I would felt you pretty quickly with TT+ here.

98 just got counterfeited, every flush draw missed, every straight draw missed, and I would imagine you 3-bet 88 usually and 99 almost always preflop.

As I said, bad turn card to do this on. Also with regards to him 3-betting the flop, it looks to me more like an overpair wanting to get it in on a good turn card. That's about as good as they come for him.

Roy + Sham-

am i correct that you're usually folding 55 and below in the blinds to a button raise from a decent reg?

where do we draw the line? do we call 66? 77? do we not call anything, and rather fold 66 and below and 3-bet 77 and above?

HU and OOP they probably 3 bet the medium pairs rather than call.

If you check PT then you will probably find that calling with a small pair and playing set or fold is -EV here unless stack sizes are very deep or villain would have an issue getting away from an overpair if you setted.

To be fair a call is better here vs a TAG than a good LAG as good LAGs are more used to letting go post-flop as they play such marginal holdings, but unless he is getting his very low WtSD% (15%) by blasting others off hands he certianly looks like a player who will get away most of the time without stacking off.

Of course the other way to make calling with small pairs here +EV is to run occasional bluffs post flop with them as here vs weak-tight players (as with 15% WtSD% he almost certainly is)

As for the hand in question, you are right in thinking he is the kind of opponent who will fold to a bluff so he is the right person to run one against. I quite like it but in your line would probably overbet the pot slightly on the turn. As for your particular bluffing line the problem is that with a board as connected as that is that a CR on the flop looks like a draw as much as a made hand, and it's really difficult to work out where he is when he calls it or what excatly you are repping.

If you don't have the balls or depth of stacks for a huge turn or river bluff, I would probably run a simpler line. With this board I woudl prefer a check-call and then repping that I hit whatever draw comes on turn (unless turn is total blank)

Another line is, wth a guy that tight post-flop and such a scary board , donk betting $10 into him (knowing that his most likely holding is high non-pairs which he would fold if he missed) and seen what he did. Once a guy as weak-tight as he is calls - I am done unless I set up.

I strongly agree with 3 betting preflop.

I think it's the right opponent to bluff but that turn card was not a good one for you, as doctorhandles mentioned.