So im trying to figure out if I have the odds to call the reraise in following hand and hope to hit turn.. Villian range in this hand is (66,TT, AQs, AQo, QTs, QTo, Q6s). He runs at 60/22/0.5 so we can assume that he will stack off if I hit my str8.
here is the hand:

Preflop: Its folded to me in CO so I raise to 8$. Above mentioned villian calls in BB, he has 200$ and i have him covered.

Flop: Pot 17$ he checks, I make a CB of 14$ and he quickly CR me to 56$. So hero does what here? i need to call 42$ into 87$, in other words, i need to call 48% of pot with 17% chance of hitting my draw on turn. So question is how much big of the stack does villian need to have on turn to make my call +0EV at least? Pushing here is not an option since our FE is 0. Now comes the problem of reverse implied odds...If I hit my str8 on turn, how do i take into my EV calculation the fact that with there are 56 total combination of hands that he can have here, of which 24 have 4 outs to FH on turn and 12 combinations have 10 outs?
Tnx

POKERSTOVE

all I know is that against a random card that Villain holds you are a SMALL favorite to win the hand, so basicallly I don't see how this would be profitable in the long run if Villain has a sound holding... I mean, if he has either a Q or a T, you're allready a dog here...
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I think maybe someone more experienced could throw in some better analysis than the one I gave above, but it sounds about right to me...

8 cards out of 45 make your hand. So, you're 37:8 or about 4.5:1 to hit on the turn.

But your implied odds are pretty decent imo, particularly on a 7. I'm not really sure about a J. Let's just assume you have full implied odds all the way.

Then you lose $42 4.5 times and win about $230 once.

If you feel like you'll always get a call, then it's +EV. I have some doubts on the J, though, although the whole thing is pretty close. And he's often going to have some outs to catch up.

I'd say this call is pretty marginal--probably +EV if you have true 100% calling equity, probably -EV if he'll fold occasionally.

37 times you miss and fold the turn: 37 * - $42 = -$1554
8 times you catch

On the 8 times you catch, we'll assume he bets the turn and you push all-in every time you hit and he calls every time. In this case, you either win $223 when your hand holds up (his full stack + the 22 you put in already + the 1 from the blind), or else you lose $178 when he sucks out a boat (your $200 minus the $22 that's already gone before your turn decision).

He has 56 different hand combinations, 24 of them have 4 outs and 12 of them have 10 outs. (I'll take your word for all this). We'll assume 0 outs for the rest of his hands (runner-runner flushes / boats are possible but we'll ignore them.)

So you catch 8 times.

24/56ths of those 8 times, or 3.43 times he has 4 outs. 3.43 * (4/44) = 0.312 times you lose here. 0.312 * -$178 = -$55.54.

12/56s of those 8 times, or 1.71 times he has 10 outs. 1.71 * (10/44) = 0.389 times you lose here. 0.389 * -$178 = -69.24.

The remaining 7.299 times (out of 8) you win $223. 7.299 * 223 = +$1627.68.

$1627.68 - $55.54 - $69.24 - $1554 = -$51.10.
-$51.10 / 45 calls = -$1.14 per call

Even in a perfect world where he stacks off every time on the turn and has zero outs except with his made two pairs and sets, a call is -EV. Assuming I did the math right.

yeah so its better to fold..given the math and the fact that calling does increase variance(expecially where he has outs to FH), its better to fold
btw. TY so much for the math, its going to help me a lot