Im sure some of you read the thread where Im keeping track of all hands where I get all in before the river and calculate my pot equity so I can compare it to my actual results. This helps me see how lucky or unlucky Ive been in big all in hands.

I can calculate my "pot equity adjusted win rate" and compare it to my real win rate. Long term these numbers should be very close, but in the short term even if Im not doing so well, I can see if its just alot of bad luck.

I was loosely keeping track and estimate that I won $1000 less than I shouldve in the last 12 days or so of last month.

On April 1st, I started keeping exact track. So far for April I have 100 all ins. Im very disappointed to report that my win rate is exactly 63.5% lower than it should be. Thats alot of outdraws folks especially when added to the end of last month.

Heres my personal favorite from today.

I raise [Kh] to $7 and he calls.

I bet $11 on a [Qh][5c] flop and he min raises me. God I hate that. I call.
Turn is the . He bets $35 and I shove all in. Its $70ish to him and he loves his [7h] so he calls and hits his 9% chance of winning. Yipee!!!

Another $224 Sklansky bucs for me to add to my tally. Can anyone tell me exactly how long "long term" is?

Curious, what site or sites are these beats happening on?

posted twice.

If I got all in with AJ, I wouldn't tell anybody. If you are getting all in before the flop with AJ, you are going to be wearing a straw hat to the Christmas tree.

I am afraid that this is a form of rationalization. I remember the bad players used to say, :"Nine eight outran Ace King." It might mean they were drawn out. It might mean they played the hand wrong. In my view, when the guy had the Q,7, you "won" the pot because you played it right. However, it somehow hurts my play to think about the bad beats. You just say, "I love the action."

Never worry about bad beats because you cannot change them. Bad beats mean the opponents are making bad percentage plays that will catch up with them. If you played it right and still got beat, you know that in the long run, you will be a winner making those plays.

You are a good, winning player. You are looking for things to worry about. Poker runs in up and down streaks like a dice game or the stock market. Whichever way your luck is running, it is bound to change.

And my very 1st all in hand of the day

The board shows

[4s][8h][9h].

I have [7c]....He shoves $42 all in into the $36 pot. I make a very tough call.

He has [6c].....and what do you know..Im right and he stills rivers a 5.

It just never stops

Ice, I feel your pain. These things seem to happen in a run. I posted a HU hand a while back where I had [Kc] and the other guy had like [7c] and the flop was Axx with two clubs, and we were all-in on the flop ... and he caught running two pair to beat me. That was the last buy-in I lost in a string of about 7 straight, I think. I was just sick.

You obviously have a big edge at HU, but I think the variance may be tough to take. Some day you will run as hot as you ran cold lately. But it may not be any time soon.