I guess technically it may be an EV calculation but nomally when you refer to EV youre talking about the call itself.

Example: A guy shoves in and I need to call $40 into a 80 pot. Im getting 2-1 and Im even money to win the hand so its a +EV call. But I dont care about that. Most of my decisions are correct. And besides, I also want to know what my pot equity is when I make a bad call.

Yesterday I made a stupid play and got all in with JT on a Txx flop. The guy had AA. It was a -EV play by me, but I still have 5 outs so I have pot equity and even though tI lost. I lost the $100 or so pot, but in the long run, I wont lose $100 every hand. I will win some of these so I get credit for $30 or whatever my PE was.

In the past 4 days, I now have $900 less than I should have. Basically what Im doing is mentally stopping the hand at the time of the all in and instead of awardign the whole pot to whoever wins, Im awarding a portion of the pot to each player according to the correct pot equity which is exacly what will happen in the long run.

Im -$211 in these past 4 days, but by looking at these numbers you can easily see that Im playing well. I should be +$700ish. All I can do is keep shoveling money in when Im ahead and let the poker gods sort it out.

Ive been a big fav 15 times and lost 7 of them.
Ive been a big dog 4 times and lost them all.

There were 8 more hands where one of us was less than 60-40. I lost 7 of them.

I think you have the math right on EV+, a term I don't really like. I prefer the best of it.

You are talking the cumulative probabilities of a series of hands. The first big thing Curly taught me about all gambling was that your yearly income depends on how much action you have with the best of it, assuming you seek the best of it on every wager. In dice, you know the math for sure. What a dice table will do over a period of hours is rather predictable. In poker, you guess. In my constant favorite situation, I semi-bluff a draw with only 40% EV against one player. I have 40% chance to win if he calls. However, I cannot lay a price on him folding but when it is added in, it will give me the best of it. If you are betting, you have the best of it. If you are calling with the same situation, you do not.

Let's look at a different kind of math, the cumulative probability calculations for one poker session.

You catch Aces or Kings every 111 times, is that right? You catch A,K more often. How often?

With these hands and trips, you often get a huge advantage if you play the hand correctly, fast early on the big cards, slow on the pairs. You do not need to be tricky. Allow them to trick themselves. I knew a professional gambler named Pat Renfro who sat a record for playing tight. He would get his money in the center with 3 to 1 and 4 to 1 the best of it. If you win two or three big pots, you have much less risk. You have a higher win rate but you are not the big winner. You are second or third. The big winner is a different guy every day.

Young guys cannot get themselves to play a cash game as tight as they play the early parts of a tournament. I can't either.

In the no limit Hold 'em game I play in, you also do your math based on pullouts. I start with $400 and will move it to the center with the best of it because I can start over forever.

You are going to play a few all-in pots a session. Your session will depend on how you came out on the big pots at no limit. I don't care if I win them or lose them. I just care if I have the best of it. I think just like Ice in calculating the what if? numbers when I lose a few pots with the best of it. During a poker game, I find this somehow comforting. Do you do that? Look over longingly at the guy's stack after he beats you in an all-in pot and count it?

I am playing in a wild pot limit game with every pot raised before the flop at least once, often there is a move in right there. Historically, I have been an aggressive, deceptive player that raised more pots than anyone in the game. Now I am getting a reputation for having AA,KK, or A,K when I re-raise the pot. With real tight play, I'd win every day. I have just won 12 in a row, some very small.

Let us look at another math thing that everyone seems to overlook. If I start with $500, how much will I have in front of me when I do hit a big hand? Every time you pitch off $10 taking a flop with a trash hand, it is $10 you would have in front of you when you need it. The money you waste counts double or more. You lose the $10 and all it would have made.

In the game I play in, patience is the best asset. I played for many years with three rocks who were just trying to double up once an afternoon for $500. They were unimaginative and had never read a poker book, make that a book. They were winners. We all know how to play to get the best of it. The really hard part is getting myself to do it. Poker is boring enough as it is.

OK, lets take this example.

I have [Jh]. The pot is $40. Board is [8h]5c][2d]. I bet $30 and he pushes for a total of $130.

The EV calulation goes like this. The pot is $200. Its $100 for me to call. It turns out he has [Ks].

Im risking $100 to win $200. 2-1 on my money. Im a 34-66 dog. Less than 2-1 so the call is +EV.

I dont care about all that. Its similar but what Im doing is much less complcated.

I dont care if my call is +EV or not. I want to know what my pot equity is in these all in hands even when Im behind. If I call an all in preflop with TT vs KK, Im a big dog, but I still get credit for 20% of the pot because I will win 20% of the time. When I have KK vs TT...same thing. Even though I win a $400 pot, I dont get credit for the full $400.

In the [Jh] example. All I want to know is that we are all in. The total pot is $400. I will win 34% of the time so I get credit for $136 no matter who wins the pot. Thats what would happen if we stopped the hand and chopped it up according to pot equity and thats what I will win if I play this hand a million times.

So while Im doing an EV type calculation, its not the same thing as Im not looking to find out whether or not play play was correct. Making the call in the AJ hand was correct but I dont care. I just want to know what my results are in these hands if there is no short term luck involved. Doing it this way takes the luck out completely on these big all in hands.

I can track my real results and when I have a bad week, I can see how much of it was due to bad luck in big pots. If variance doesnt bother you at all, then this is probably a watse of time, but it helps me during bad runs, especially playing heads up where variance is huge.

ICE...ugh...EV doesn't mean +EV, it means EXPECTED VALUE, it's a statistical (mathematical) TERM. The calculation is very simple: odds of winning x amount in pot = EV. The way POKER uses it to get to + or - is whether you have to call less than you'll win (+EV) or call more than you'll win (-EV).

YOUR EXPECTED VALUE is ALWAYS a POSITIVE number (as long as you have >0% chance of winning), but that doesn't mean it's +EV the way that poker talks about it.

you are calculating EV sir...

OK, maybe youre right. Th epoint is that i dont care whether or not the play I make is plus or minus EV. I just want to calculate my pot equity or expected value or sklansky bucs.

Ice.....Your pot equity idea is the same concept as insurance on a hand. In the earlier days of the World Series, there were several bookies that would give you a price on a hand. Basically, they would buy your pot equity for a price that gave them a piece of the best of it. This was before odds calculators and Homeland Security.

Say two guys go all in on any of the examples that you cite. Then some guy might give them so much money for half their action or all of the pot if they win. In a multi-player pot, you might take a profit or back out of the pot before the last two cards.

Sometimes, different people would quote a price and argue. It was very colorful. Jack Binion would quote a price on the big games.

I would advise you not to show your hole cards until it is all over. I'd refuse to show my hand or talk insurance because I do not want the dealer knowing what card my opponent needs. Because of tournaments on TV, people in casinos show their hole cards after a move in and ask to see mine. I tell the dealer to deal.

YIPPEE!!!!!!!

3 all ins today

TT vs 69 on a 876 board...Im a 70% fav and lose

45s vs 77 on a 6322 board...I, a 90% fav and lose

AA vs Q7 on a Q397 board....of course hes a moron for calling a raise with Q7 and I cant possible suck out on him

I swear the vairance heads up woulnd be no problem at all if the pot was just split by equity. Its not like I keep getting all in 50/50 and just have deal with it. Im like a 2-1 to 7-1 fav almost every time and just keep losing them. 6 days of heads up and the poker godsa owe me over $1K now.

False...so very very very false. Read my post again please.