I call it expected payout because its not really EV that I care about. Basically I want to know ho wmuch money I deserve in hands where I get all in with cards yet to come.

I dont care about the EV of the play when I push or call the all in.

Example:

I raise to $7 with 88. He calls.
Flop is 234 and he open pushes. I call. He has 55.

The total pot is $143. I am 61%-38% to win.

I want to track 2 columns. One column will be how much money I deserve from that pot and the other is how much I actually got.

61 x 143 = 8723
39 x 143 = 5577

8723 - 5577 = 3146
3146 / 100 - $31.46 which is what i believe I deserve. Agree?

Now what would you put in the other column when I win and when I lose?

When I win is it $143 because I have $143 more than I wouldve if I lost.
When I lose is it $0? Or -$143? Or something else?

None of the options I can think of sound correct.

I could go back to figuring the actual EV of the call or push but that doesnt account for hands like this one.

I raise $7 with [Ad] and he calls.
Flop [2h][Td]. I bet $11 and he calls.
Turn . He has $33 left so I push. That play is correct everytime, but when he calls with [Th], I want to know how much of the pot I deserve. Maybe its really the same thing?

What are you trying to track? Your EV ('what you deserve') vs. how you actually run in these situations? Variance? I totally don't get it.

I dont understand what you are asking either.

I lost 4 or 5 of these all ins in the last 3 days and I just want to see what the outcome wouldve been if the pot was divided up acording to EV at the time of the all in and compare it to the results.

I dont care about the EV of my call (if I called his all in) as in the 88 hand. The EV of my call and the amount of equity I have in the total pot is not the same, as Im sure you know.

Im just not sure what to track for results. In the 88 hand, should I track +$31.46 in the EV column and -$71.50 in the actual comlumn (since I actually lost $71.50 in the hand? Or do I use the full pot amount?

If I win the hand, I have $143 more in my account more than I do if I lose the hand.

OK, I think thats what Im looking for.

So if I only win 1 out of those 3 hands where I was the 2-1, I would have $100 and my PE was $200, so I could "mentally" add in $100 to my actual results to make my self feel better on days when i get outdrawn alot. In the long run these 2 columns will come out exactly the same, but in the short run it helps ease the stress of really bad days due to bad luck.

that difference is known as "sklansky bucks"

he wasnt asking about EV or profitablity. that is why I did it they way I did.

I am not saying it is the "best" or "most correct" way.

just one way to compare


he said he didnt care about EV

i was thinking about this myself

no offense to your approach beavis, it has the advantage that you don't need to count the hands you rated.

@ice where do you want to use these things (in what program)?

Ice, you realize what you're calculating IS YOUR EV!!!!!!!!!!

Beavis,
Check my math please.

Here are 3 examples:

#1) I have QQ. he has QT. We are all in on a J94 flop. Total pot is $133. Im 68-32 fav. I get credit for $90ish. and $133 goes in the other column (actual results).since I won

#2) I have JJ. He has AQ with Qs. We're all in on a Txx flop all spades. Total pot $193.Im 49-51 dog. I get credit for $94.50ish and 0 goes in results since I lost.

#3) I have [9d]. He has [9c]. We're all in on a [Jd][Td][8c] board. Total pot is $43. Im 80-20 fav. I lose. I get credit for $34ish. 0 goes in results.


If these are correct, then I have it right. No matter how long you play outdraws still bother you when they come in droves, but by doing this, it helps mentally ignore the short term variance. If my math is correct, in the past 3 days Im +$315 in 11 hours of heads up for $29 / hr but when you factor in this exercise, Im actually +$727 for $66 / hr.

So instead of sitting around moping about a mediocre win rate and trying to figure out what adjustments I need to make, I can sit back and be happy with my play knowing that I just had some abnormally bad luck. if I played these exact same 3000 or so hands over and over a million times, I would have won $66 / hr which Im very happy with.