Those fish will get replaced by new fish.

Just move.

I think Xas is right ... the fish just come and go. Basically people will either play until they aren't a fish anymore, or they get sick of losing all their money and stop playing. There's a constant turnover.

The game may not retain the astronomical numbers that it's enjoyed the last few years, but even when it's out of style, there will still be enough to go around.

I understand what you're saying, Rhound. I've been thinking about this, too. I think if this is still going on after the WSOP, then it will rapidly go downhill. We here in Vegas will hold onto it longer, but by the end of the year we'll be feeling it, too.

If the WSOP goes as I think it will, and there will be between 2 and 3,000 for the ME, it will be seen as over, that will be the headlines, and the bandwagon will go in the wrong direction. Maybe this will wake up Harrahs, etc. (They may also be delighted as they can shrink poker rooms and put in more slots.)

But, I also think that a lot of people have gotten exposed to playing poker, found out how much fun it is, the social part of it, and that it's better than losing ten times as much on house games, and it isn't going to fall as far as it did in the early 90's, when most rooms in Vegas are closed.

Now, if Sands and Harrahs and the Wynn Internet Poker Room were to open, and you could use your Amex to fund the account, then I think you'd see a whole new boom. A large number of people I know and those I've played with have never played a hand of Internet poker for real money. You'd be amazed. Many, many play for monopoly money. They say they don't trust the Net casinos. (If the word gets out about how much money players have "lost" during this prohibition crisis, we might never get these people to ever play for real money.) But, if they think Harrahs et al are behind the new casinos, then you'd have a whole new round of players and things will be very good indeed.

As with everything else in poker, it depends.

Good post CJ.

i like both xas' and zmej's points.

i'll just add another point via a question:

do you think the vegas execs are asking "when is the supply of all the slots and pit games fish going to dry up?"


the answer is "never". the reason is that they have a product that satisfies some fundamental human needs and wants of a wide range of their target population. poker does this, too, and often times better (imho). the social aspect is important. the belief that one can beat the house and the fact that this can actually happen is also key. i think casinos and card rooms will start to realize that they are onto something here... kind of like LV did in the late 80s and early 90s. there is a lot of room for improvement to provide a "product" that will draw customers who are willing to lose money both to the house and to other players (e.g., facilitating HU matches -- see below). the only way the fish dry up is if the poker rooms do a poor job managing the balance of luck and skill in the games they offer for the players they have at their tables (e.g., uncapped nlhe games are largely NOT good for perpetuating the fish community).


anyway, one of the things i look forward to are the HU automated tables that have come out. there is something about these in one of the CP magazines. these are the same kinds of tables that MVP seems to hate, but HU instead of FR. apparently they look like those old-school sit-down arcade games. the idea that you could play a variety of games (e.g., HOSE) quickly and relatively cheaply (hopefully) will facilitate the play of a lot of high variance games in which the fish really don't know what their true edge is -- all they'll know is that they can win A LOT of money if they run hot. this kind of game could also possibly generate some more interest in limit games and non-HE games. i hope they have a 6-max/SH table in the works.


[edited for spelling]