Playing $2/$5 blind NL yesterday, the folowing hand came up which illustrates a point not often made:

3 limpers to me and I look down to see the JhTh. I call and the BB calls behind me - $25 in the pot. The flop comes Qc8h3h. It checked around to me and I bet $25. EP limper raises to $50 and the remaining field folds. Two points of interest: My opponent is easily my toughest opponent at the table and he is the only one to have me covered. I have about $1000 in front of me but he just pulled out a wad at the beginning of the hand and money on the table plays. With 7 untainted hearts and 3 nines to make my hand I call the $25 raise. There is now $125 in the pot. The turn card is the 4s and he bets $100 giving me immediate pot odds of $100 to win $225. Pot odds alone isn't going to be enough so I have to consider implied odds. I went into the tank and this is what was going on inside the tank..

If a heart comes - this guy isn't going to bet. Regardless of whether it fill him up or not. But he will check a heart to me even if it fills him up and so we'll go to show down without a bet - cause I'll check along with him if a heart comes that pairs the board. He's got KK at the very least.. not that I believe he has KK - I actually put him on a better hand than that but anything from KK to a set of eights. What will he call? I can sell a call to him of $100 only - I'm convinced of that. He'll pay me off for $100 but no more. Ok, so I'm calling $100 to win $325... still not enough. Now to consider an offsuit 9... If a nine comes, he'll bet again. How much? Well $50 on the flop... $100 on the turn... he'll bet $200 if a nine comes. What kind of raise will he call? I figure on $400. Ok, so if a nine comes, my call on the turn is actually going to turn out to be calling $100 to win $825. There are 3 offsuit nines and 7 hearts. Ok, so I have 46 unknown cards left and 12 hit my hand leaving me with 34 times that I lose $100 for a net loss of $3400. I'm going to allow the tainted hearts to cancel each other out and ignore them. 7 times I win $325 for $2275 and 3 times I win $825 for $2475. So I win $4750 and lose $3400 on 46 trials - for a net gain of $1350 over 46 trials or a positive expectation of $29. I called.

Now, what did I come up with at the table? Well I didn't figure out that I had a positive EV of $29 on a call... I simply rounded off and compared numbers - I came up with $4600 vs $3400 during the hand. The rest of it however was thought about before I made the call.

The situation which makes this hand interesting is that you have implied odds regardless of the out that you hit but you don't have the same implied odds regardless of the card that you hit - so you have to calculate seperately. If you just calculate that you have 10 outs (7+3) and are calling $100 to win $325 then you end up with a negative expectation for the hand - win $3250 and lose $3400. Not all outs are created equal. To accurately assess your implied odds, sometimes you have to divide your outs for calculating the implied odds and then bring them back together.

TUP

Someday I will be close to doing something like that...not soon though. Still have to get out of my head during play.

So, how was your read on the opponent, assuming you hit your hand? Just curious if you hit the flush, the nine, or nothing at all which sounds like one of my draws.

Excellent point! Of course if he would limp with [Qh] then you have problems but I assume you ruled that out based on his previous play.

So what happened. You missed and folded right?

Actually, I was talking to my gf on the phone during the posting of this and was sharing the hand and post with her when she asked me for the rest of the story too.... As I explained to her - this really was the end of the story in alot of ways because poker isn't about winning or losing pots - it's about making correct decisions. In that sense, what happened next isn't important. However, it looks like I did make an incorrect read and so I guess the rest of the story does have merit.

An offsuit 9 hit the river and he bet $200, I raised $400 and he called like a shot... I left some money on the table - he would have called more. He didn't show.

How is your read wrong? You said you thought if a 9 hit, he would bet $200 and would probably call $400 more which is exactly what happened.
He may have called more, but thats not what you thought when you made the turn call.

iceman, that's why my read was wrong - I thought the most I could get him to call was another $400 but it became clear after I raised that he would have called more. So a call was still correct - but a) it was more correct than I gave it credit for and b) I left money on the table.

I think you played it well. I can't put him on a larger flush draw, my only fear about the hand. What happens if a baby heart hops off and he checks? if it didn't pair the board, I'd bet that even though it is obvous most of the time. With the stack sizes, I usually would not bet a flush that is not the nuts. It depends on the man, then the hand.

Against some players, when the nine arrived, I am making an over size bet that makes him study. I bet the pot in pot limit. My image suggests that. Your tight image might tell you to sell it for what you can get. I'm putting him on some two pair.

The nightmare is that a heart hops off, he checks and you bet. Then he moves in.
That is the rarest of all scenarios. If he found a flush larger than yours, he would not check on fifth.

Geez---i think I will stay at the $25 tables a bit longer than I expected...How the hell you guys think that damn fast???
B

Uhhh... Frickin 'A' post, dude.

I've never even heard of this before.

With training and many more thousands of hands' experience, I may be at this stage.

Two questions:

1. Can I ask for an honest assessment of how long you were in the tank for on this?

2. And what kind of expression do you have on your face when you're going this deep into the tank? I've only been in a B&M a few times, but there was this one guy whose eyes kept darting about and squinting whenever he was calculating his draws. Do you practice at home by doing math in the mirror with a stone-face?

MG,

Good point and you're right - without the added outs and increased implied odds which came from the possibility of hitting the 9, I wouldn't have been there against this player. There are some players who would have paid me off handsomely on the flush - against them I may have drawn to the flush alone but not against most players.

Just found this post after a long time... I think it's worth to bring it up so others can read it as well. I've ben trying to find a post to help me figure out implied odds, and this is the best one so far.