Found another way to turn the nut and lose on the river. It's in the BB section. Can't wait to finish up that Full Tilt bonus. It may even be -EV now the way I'm running. Still don't think I'm playing badly, but I can no longer say I'm on my A game. I'm tilting a bit, but I'm not really tilting off stacks or tourny buy-ins. I'm usually still ahead or have a big hand when the money goes in.

I have had 3 winning weeks so far this month, but have lost more this week than I won in any of the previous 3 and have dumped over half my monthly profits now. The week isn't over. Sat and Sun are usually my worst days. I actually haven't had a winning weekend yet.

Anyway, the point of this post is to update the limp/push experiment which I will continue to do here if nothing else. 1 new hand to add. 76s, picked up $4 on the fold.

Limp/push experiment:
4 pushed - 2 calls = (-$92.95)
AA: 1 push - 1 call = (-$56.75)
Calls = 0 Wins 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?762382 (AKs)
QQ: 1 push - 1 call = (-$41.70)
Calls = 0 Wins 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?767894 (AKo)
76s: 1 push - 0 calls = +$4
Calls = NONE
65s: 1 push - 0 calls = +$2.50
Calls = NONE

Limp in EP with AA/KK/AK/QQ/56s/67s - push to any substantial raise.
(Don't push vs min-raise unless half the table is in. Evaluate individual cases against different opponents - ie TAG, LAG, Maniac)

I had to cut myself off early today. See my running thread in the Bad Beat section. I felt demoralized and defeated after that hand.......AGAIN.

As I've said previously, my NL sessions consist of only 2 tables for an hour to 2 hours which equals 150 - 250 hands usually. I shouldn't have the variance where I'm losing big pots with the nuts every session. I'm gonna go through my PT database for the week now and see if what I think happened this week has really happened. I'll be posting every big pot I was involved with this week where the money went in and I was ahead. Surely I had to win a decent % of them. I won't even count monsters vs monsters where I was behind or any tournament hands. Most of this is probably repetitive, but here we go......

Over 1020 hands this week:
1 - The well publicized [Ac] vs [Ks] hand all-in preflop. Board [9c][5s][9s][2s]. 83% preflop. Lost $56.75 Down to 1.5 outs on the flop.

2 - CO raises to $3 and I call OTB w/ [6s]. [8h][6d] 3 way flop. I float his pot bet and other player folds. and I raise his $20 bet all-in. He has [Ah] I'm 95% and Win $55.70 2 outs on the river.

3 - UTG raises to $2 and I call with [6s] along with 2 others. [Kc][5d]. I float a $3.50 c-bet and all fold. . I bet $15 (pot) and he c/r AI. I call. He has [Qd]. 100% to win. Win $51.75 0 outs.

4 - [8s] vs [7h]. All the money goes in on a [7s][9d][6d] board. Nuts on the turn, but only 77% to win. Rivered boat. Lost $55.15 10 outs on the river.

5 - [Qh] vs [Ks] all-in preflop. Ace on the river. 57% to win preflop. Lose $41.70 6 outs on the river.

6 - 4 way limped pot with [4d] in the SB. HU on the turn [8c][6c][2d]. Again I have the nuts, but he has outs. He had [7c]. Ends up hitting one of only 3 outs that would get him paid on the river though. . 75% on the turn. Lose $22.15 Only 3 outs that would bet him paid on the river.

7 - Today's ridiculousness. I call a raise from UTG+1 in MP with, guess what.....[6h]. One other caller. [6s][2s]. I raise his flop pot c-bet 2.5x. He pushes. He has [Kc]. on the river. Thankfully he had a half stack. 87% to win when the money wen in. Lose $23.75. 2 outs on the river.

So we have 8 hands where I put my money in as a BIG favorite (1 coin flip). I won 2 (100% and 95%) and lost 5 (83%, 77%, 57%, 75%, 87%). Pretty ugly. Hey, at least I won the hand where I was 100%. And what's up with the 6's. I just noticed that every set I flopped was 666!!!

No limp/push hands today.

I just had a nice long post about the maniac I played a bunch of pots with today and lost it. Probably better off. I put it in the NL section instead now because I was looking for some perspective. Anyway, to update the end of the week numbers even though I'd rather not......

January results:
WEEK 1 +$95.60 (23h 11m)
WEEK 2 +$61.05 (14h 53m)
WEEK 3 +$159.12 (18h 42m)
WEEK 4 -$193.65 (26h 45m)

There Are Monsters Under My Bed......NO.....There Really Are

Midnight Madness tonight.....
Cooler #1: Blind vs Blind - Blinds 40/80 [5h] BB
SB has 1170 and I have him covered with over 3000
Board [8h][7s][6d] giving me a straight when I bet and he c/r all-in. Only 1 hand that beats me and I have one of those tens so I call. He has that one hand [9s].

Ok, I still have some chips left. I steal a few pots and get over 2K again.

Cooler #2: Blind vs Blind #2 - Blinds 60/120 [Th] in SB
[8s][9c]
BB is short stacked so I call his all-in raise. He has [6d].

No problem, I still have an M of 5. So I wait and I wait and I wait and wait

and [Jd] in the BB. A fish with less chips than me limps in EP. He limped every other hand no matter his stack. I push and he calls w/ [5s] and hits his Ace.

So I'm left with 325 in the SB and as luck would have it........[Kd]...........WHAT A BITCH LOLOLOLOOLOLOLOLOOLLOOL Good Times Good Times

3 limpers, I push of course and all 3 limpers call. Pot = 1460. Not bad.
[9d][6c] checked around
YESSSSSSS!!!!!! 1st limper pushes, 2nd limper folds, 3rd limper calls all-in?????
1st limper [Th]
3rd limper [Jd]

Now that's some funny sh*t

So now that I'm afraid of every single card that comes out if I don't have the nuts, I figure I need to find a new game.

1/2 Limit 6-max. Let's try that. Less beats.
[Qh] BB, 1st hand. Bet and 3-bet before me. I call, flop TPTK. Flop gets capped, I'm worried. Turn gets raised, I fold. 1 guy had 45 for bottom pair other guy had KQ. I'm an idiot.

So I realize that the 1 guy is a maniac (100/75/50) so when he calls my preflop raise I don't pay any attention. Ax3 flop and I have an Ace. Capped flop. 3 on turn and he raises again. blank river and he shows me 83 offsuit.

So much for 1/2 Limit 6-max -$42.50 in 123 hands.

50/1 Omaha H/L Full Ring....
Now here's a loose passive game I may end up enjoying......

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
9 players


Pre-flop: (9 players) OneOutWinner is MP3 with
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, OneOutWinner calls (3.5:1), CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: (7SB, 7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, OneOutWinner bets, CO folds, Button raises, 2 folds, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, OneOutWinner calls (13:2), Button calls.

Turn: (8BB, 3 players)
UTG bets, OneOutWinner calls (9:1), Button calls.

River: (11BB, 3 players)
UTG bets, OneOutWinner raises, Button calls, UTG calls.

Results:
Final pot: 17BB
OneOutWinner showed 9c Js 2s Ah
Button mucks Td Ts Ad 6c
UTG mucks 2c 3h 8h 4d

1 hour +$12.30

Finally there's the beast that has become NL50. I'm stealing like crazy on one table, but hitting none of my draws so I'm breaking even. On the 2nd table I'm getting raising hands, missing and getting c-bets called. On one hand I flopped TPTK with AK, was called twice but decided to check behing with a 7 on the river for some odd reason.
(Remember, there are monsters under my bed). Sure enough, he had A7 for rivered 2 pair.

Then this hand came up.....[7s] in the BB.
Button (Loose Passive) open limps, SB folds, I check.
[7c][6c] Pot $1.25
I check, he bets $1 and I call.
Pot $3.25
I check, he bets $1 again, I min-c/r to $2 thinking it's the only way I'm going to get money out of this boat, and he re-raises to $5. He has $36.30 left and I have him covered.

So now I'm pausing. This is supposed to be an acting job, but I'm actually thinking this sick bastard has pocket 10's now. Why? Not because it's practical or probable, but because it's technically possible, which makes it a mere certainty this past week. I close my eyes and push and he calls with [8s].

Drawing dead. 100% to win. The only time I can feel confident. Broke about even for the day. An improvement.

Flopped Top Set And Lost The Minimum

Have I mentioned that I'm really starting to get irritated by these 2 outters? Lost a little over 1/2 a stack in 200 hands today, mostly due to this hand. Seems like every flush got there against me as well. Again, I was able to keep the damage to a minimum by stealing a lot of pots. I have now lost about 20% of my bankroll in the past 10 days or so.

[Ts] in BB. 3 limpers + SB so I just check.
[Th][6d] Pot $2.50
SB checks, I bet $2, UTG raises to $6, everyone else folds.
UTG was probably the best player at the table. He either had AA/KK or the straight already. I figured if he has the straight then I'm behind so I just called. If he has AA or KK then I can let him hang himself.
Pot $14.50
Sure that's one card I didn't want to see. I forgot that I'm usually hanging myself when they're drawing to 2 outs. Remember, there ARE MONSTERS UNDER MY BED!
I check call his $3 bet on the Turn and his $5 bet on the River and he shows me his set of Kings.

2 pair, sets, and straights have all been net losers for me over the past 1.5K hands (10 days).


Continuing and amending the Limp/Push Experiment:
I've decided to now only push when there is more than 1 player still in the pot when it gets back to me. I may also push these hands when I am OTB or in the Blinds and there is a raise and a couple of players still in the pot.

I declined to push 76s yesterday after limping vs a rock. Today I pushed AKs from the BB after several limpers and then a $3 raise from the SB who had done this previously in the same situation. He folded.

Limp/push experiment:
6 pushed - 2 calls = (-$81.20)
AA: 1 push - 1 call = (-$56.75)
Calls = 0 Wins 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?762382 (AKs)
KK - 1 push - 0 calls = +$7.25
Calls = NONE
QQ: 1 push - 1 call = (-$41.70)
Calls = 0 Wins 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?767894 (AKo)
AK: 1 push - 0 calls = +$4.50
Calls = NONE
76s: 1 push - 0 calls = +$4
Calls = NONE
65s: 1 push - 0 calls = +$2.50
Calls = NONE

My sanity has been saved. I had my first deep run in a tournament this month, finishing 15th out of 952 tonight. Not a big cash, but good for $90.44 after a $12 buy-in. I just missed the money, finishing 168th out of 850 in the other MTT I played tonight.

The AK/AQ Tournaments

I played like an absolute rock tonight. That was the plan from the start and it worked out pretty well. I made only one semi-move the entire tournament and it turned into a sick hand. I was playing like a rock and 3-bet a raiser with AQs. It would have worked too if the SB hadn't woke up with AA. Even sicker was that I cracked them with a straight on the turn. It's about time one of those went in my favor.

I ended up running AQ into AA or KK 3x tonight. All vs the SB. The first I told you about. The 2nd was just as sick as he didn't re-raise KK from the SB. Flop was QQ9 when we got it all in and of course I can never beat KK no matter what the flop is. He hit running cards for the straight. 3rd time I was short-stacked OTB when it was limped to me. I pushed and the SB again had AA.

In those 2 tournaments I saw 474 hands and only 1 AA and 0 KK's.
10 AK's and 8 AQ's. I had 14 AK/AQ in one tournament alone. Almost 5% of my hands in that tournament were AK/AQ. In addition to running AQ into monsters almost half the time, I lost my last 3 All-In hands with AK to 33, 77, and ATo.

Countdown To Tilt

I had a breakeven NL50 session tonight, due entirely to my own poor play and tilt. It was basically one hand, one poor river decision that cost me $31.70. I should have shown a profit of that amount after 212 hands today. There were no bad beats for me to whine about today although there were a couple of coolers. (I define cooler as when you just end up in an unlucky situation, but were never really far ahead in the 1st place)

About 2 orbits in, I raise [Jc] from EP to $2, CO calls. Flop is [3d][Ah]. I bet pot and he calls. Turn . I bet 2/3 pot again and he raises 3x my bet and I fold. He shows me [6d]. Insta-tilt.

Two hands later [Jh] in the BB. EP and MP limpers. Flop [Js][6h]. I fired a pot bet with TPTK. MP limper calls. Turn . I fire another pot bet with top 2 pair. MP limper calls. River blank and I fire a 1/2 pot bet and limper pushes all-in. I figure stupidly that he saw his buddy just do that and call, thinking the only logical hand to worry about is 66, but he actually limped with Jacks.

So that was the 3rd time this week I flopped or turned top 2 pair wth AJ in the blinds only to be stacked by a limper with pocket Jacks.

Then the lil' bitch takes my money and runs away. Gone.

I won 2 all-in pots against shorties when I flopped a boat and then 2 pair. I always beat the shorties. It's the big pots that I get outdrawn in.

Then here's the very next pot I play against Mr. Bluffer from the 1st hand which isn't really that much later. He limps and I raise [Qs] OTB to $2. He and the other limper call. Flop is [6d][Jd]. He donks pot, raise to $17.50. He called.

How convenient would it be for him to actully flop a monster the very next hand after he showed me a big bluff. I spend entire sessions trying to set something like that up and apparently he did it right away. The rest of the hand, [Ts], got checked down and his [3d] takes the pot.

Not much else, except that I 3-bet a loose raiser (also a shortie) with JJ in CO. He raised to $1.10 and I re-raised to $4. He called potted a 285 rainbow. I min-raised, putting him all-in and he called. I guess I must have a reputation of 3-betting with garbage. Which is strange since I don't think I've ever done it.

Play Of The Day

If I had played the rest of the session this well, I wouldn't have had any problems. I went for the limp re-raise with [Kd], but instead caught 2 limpers and the BB.
[Ts][4h] Pot $2.25
I bet $1.50 just to see who was interested. Only the Button (28/15/17) called.
Pot $5.25
I'm thinking a pair of Queens, a draw, or pocket 4's are a possibility. TT and QQ aren't likely because he liked to raise in position.
I bet $3 and he raised to $8. I called.
Pot $21.25
PERFECT card for me. Now I'm not afraid of any sets. I'm still crushing Qx and a draw obviously missed. QT doesn't beat me either. I could have bet, but he would have folded a draw and may have even folded a small Queen. So I decided to check and give him a chance to bluff. He bet $12. I called and he showed [8s].

I did get one limp/push in with AKs. Button raised to $2 and both blinds called. I picked up $6 without a flop.

Limp/push experiment:
7 pushed - 2 calls (both showing AK) = (-$75.20)
AA: 1 push - 1 call = (-$56.75)
Calls = 0 Wins 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?762382 (AKs)
KK - 1 push - 0 calls = +$7.25
Calls = NONE
QQ: 1 push - 1 call = (-$41.70)
Calls = 0 Wins 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?767894 (AKo)
AK: 2 push - 0 calls = +$10.50
Calls = NONE
76s: 1 push - 0 calls = +$4
Calls = NONE
65s: 1 push - 0 calls = +$2.50
Calls = NONE

January #'s coming later.

HOLY CRAP - WTF just happened?

I just played about 60 hands of NL50 in 20 minutes...........at 2 TABLES. There was nobody with a VP$IP over 16 at either table. Now normally I'd be ok with this and I'd just start raising and stealing up a storm. But these were ultra aggressive/rock/calling stations. They didn't play many hands at all, but when they did, they weren't folding to c-bets, they were check-raising, they were re-raising and even bluffing big. It was actually a rock who bluffed me earlier this afternoon with T6s. And the scarier thing was that everyone at these tables were all acting as if they knew each other. I couldn't find a table where anyone was actually playing. It was the same 10-15 rocks on all 20 or so tables. Is this it? Is this the end? Depressing. I finished the day, and basically the month now, just about break even.

JANUARY NUMBERS
NL Hold'em ($50NL) - 4,782 hands - 33h 51m
+$132.45
LIMIT Hold'em ($1/2 FR and 6-max) - 2,910 hands - 11h 52m
+$28
HORSE ($.50/1 LIMIT) - 3h 9m
-$10.65
OMAHA H/L ($25 NL & PL CAP, $.50/1 LIMIT, $25 PL) - 5h 9m
+$25.95
MTT ($10 & $24 buy-ins) - 34 MTT's
-$223.16

BONUSES: +$180

TOTAL +$152.69

So basically, the bonuses saved me from a slightly negative month. The depressing thing is that I was actually up $392 for the month on 1/19. I want to say that I'm looking foward to a better February when in truth I'm just hoping that poker still exists online 4 weeks from now.

Played like a rock last night in the Midnight Madness again. I had a decent stack for a long time, but just found myself card dead at a table where trying to steal or bluff was cheating death. Most hands were raised and eithe re-raised or pushed by one of the blinds or both.

Example: One player fond of raising every other hand, raised from MP, was called by the SB and then the BB push. MP called and turned over AQo. BB turned over 55. These were not short stacks mind you either. 55 held up and MP called BB an idiot, how could he push with 5's and requested that BB aquired AIDS and died.

Then a few hands later MP pulls the same stunt in the BB vs my Button raise. I folded. Then he tries it the next time and gets called, by me with AQo. He had J9s. LOL

Finished 126. Tournament paid 126. Went out with JJ vs KQs. I guess I'm just happy I didn't catch Jacks a hand sooner.

The really messed up thing about this tournament was that most of my better hands ended up winning, but only because I re-sucked the river. They try to make you feel lucky to be alive when you were a big favorite when the money went in in the first place.

[Ad] vs [Kh] all-in preflop....[4s][3d]........[Qd]

[Qd] vs [9s] all-in preflop (Example above).....[7s][8h]............

I made one stupid move the whole tournament that stopped me from going further. I had 88 in late position and fired flop and turn on a Q-hi board and couldn't get BB off Q4s. I also had a scare when the maniac who open-raised T2s from EP and then fired pot bets twice almost cracked my set of 7's when he turned a flush draw. If you can't slowplay a set of 7's on a K83 board vs T2, then what the hell can you slowplay?

I went back to 1/2 Limit 6-max today for another short beating. 162 hands in 30 minutes. Only an $11 loss though it was much worse until I hit 2 nut flushes just before I left. I guess the learning curve there may be much steeper than I thought it was. I was under the impression that middle pairs (66-99) should be raised and may hold up more vs 1 opponent. Not the case so far. Pretty much any overcard that hit was my opponent. Seems like an Ace on every flop too. I also flopped top pair and was outkicked many more times than I thought would happen on a shorthanded table. Then I fold top pair the one time 2 other players go nuts on the flop turn. One was bluffing Ace high and the other had a middle pocket pair. So I don't know.

Then I raise QQ OTB and the flop comes JTx. BB bets, limper raises, I 3-bet, and BB caps. Turn is a rag and it gets bet and raised again. I just call. River is J so now I figure I'm definitely dead here when it gets checked around and neither player has a damn thing. Go figure.

Otherwise, there just aren't enough games in the late afternoon anymore on Full Tilt to utilize table selection. Either your sitting in a game with a bunch of pretty solid TAG's (same ones on pretty much every table) or you have to wait till later.

This just keeps getting sicker and sicker. AlexMR, you got nothing on me lately. I'm still looking for monsters under my bed and then I take a flop with AA vs someone I'm pretty sure has KK when a King shows up. What now? See my post in the NL section.

For the 2nd session in a row, I finished up 85 cents. Luckily I got another call from the Limp/Push experiment. This was the 1st time out of 4 that I was actually a slight dog. And guess what?............I won of course. AKs called by QQ and I flopped the K. He almost folded too which would have been fine. I'm SHOCKED at how often I'm getting called (4 out of 9)!!!!

Limp/push experiment:
9 pushed - 4 calls (AAvsAKs,QQvsAK,AKsvsA9, AKsvsQQ) = (-$44.70) (-$4.97) per push
AA: 1 push - 1 call = (-$56.75)
Calls = 0 Wins 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?762382 (AKs)
KK - 1 push - 0 calls = +$7.25
Calls = NONE
QQ: 1 push - 1 call = (-$41.70)
Calls = 0 Wins 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?767894 (AKo)
AK: 4 push - 2 call = +$41
Calls = 1 Win 1 Loss
http://www.pokerhand.org/?787600 (A9o)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?790129 (QQ)
76s: 1 push - 0 calls = +$4
Calls = NONE
65s: 1 push - 0 calls = +$2.50
Calls = NONE