BEca 1/2NL

Villain is a thinking, tight, aggressive player. He's yet to show down a hand, but IMO he can lay down a hand like TPTK very easily. He is also capable of making moves. He knows me for what I am.

Villain has $24o, hero covers.

Dealt in the CO and make a standard opening bet of $8, Villain is the only caller.

Flop comes , pot is $17

Hero bets $16, Villain smooth calls.

Wow, alarm bells go off in my head right there...this guy would raise TPTK all day with a flush draw out there. He would raise AK there probably 95% of the time in my estimation. So right there, I have him narrowed very thin, either 55 (85%) or AA (10%, say 5% is other, but really he has one of these 2 hands IMO.

OK so the turn comes , pot is $49.

so the flush just got there (the chance of him having a FD without the ace are remote. however). I still have him pegged as massively strong, lets test it out..

Hero bets $32 with quads
Villain calls

Another smooth call? WTF.

Ok so the river is a rag, pot is $113

Hero does what?

In advance I'll tell you that I open pushed and villain needs to call $174.

Villain needs what to call?

Does the villain call?

Hopefully the villain will share his thought process as well.

I agree with Zmej, this guy very likely doesnt have a set, if he does he raises the flop, if not the flop he raises the turn, its not the neccisarily puts you on a flush draw but another heart is an action killer.. My guess is more like A[Kh]A[Qh], this actually is a much better time to overbet all in IMO. The other thing that nobody has said is the overbet all in also looks like a bluff,

Well you're stacking him either way when he has 55 or AA so I'd just focus on getting money off the hands that matter.

As Zmej said, $70 looks good. If you think he'll call a push with AQ/AK or the flush but won't raise the flush than pushing looks good.

Overbet push lets a flush and possibly AK off too easily.
A more normal bet gets pushed over by AA or 55 anyway.

And there is no way an overbet allin looks like a bluff on this board against a good TAG, IMO.

On the contrary shobute, i think that a river value bet lets strong but skittish hands off the hook to easily. if the villain were to give his assessment (he posts here), I bet you he would say there was no way he was raising a value bet with what eventually turned out to be 55.