The villain here is pretty solid. I have 1000 hands with him and he has a very good win rate. Of course this is a battle of the blinds where people overplay and try to get tricky.

The last time he made a huge overbet all in like this, he had the nuts.

Do you call here?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed)

MP2 ($267.16)
MP3 ($208.25)
CO ($129.8)
Button ($484.4)
SB ($509.87)
Hero ($451.3)
UTG ($612.2)
UTG+1 ($378.7)
MP1 ($683.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , . SB posts a blind of $2.
7 folds, SB (poster) completes, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $8.

Flop: ($24) , , (2 players)
SB bets $20, Hero raises to $40, SB calls $20.

Turn: ($104) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $75, SB calls $457.87 (All-In),

I just posted that I usually call these and usually lose. And I'm trying to avoid that.

But I probably call here. I can't think he has a set. Set of As of Js would be unlikely since you had AJ.

Set of 6s or 8s is a little more likely. But I bet he raises preflop with 88 or 66 in a heads-up situation. AA or JJ I can see just completing with, trying not to take you off your hand.

I call. If he shows AA or JJ I just shake my head and get pissed at the flop.

I'm going to guess a pair and a flush draw for him here. Maybe [Qs].

seems he either has A8 or 88 in the hole, perhaps AsXs...possibly 66...
tough one...
i'd probably throw it away putting him on a set...since you say he's very solid and knows you are too.

What happened?

I call and expect to see him on a big draw for a the river

This is a really tough call, if this guy is solid, he has one of two things a massive draw or a monster hand. Playing the battle of the blinds he could definatly have called your raise with AA or 66, or he could have called with [10s]. If you have seen him make this massive overbet with the nuts, I would conisder folding. Maybe thats a little weak tight of me. Did he make that same all in overbet in this game or was it in your notes from a previous session? If it was a previous session, it makes me even more likely to fold.

I fold this for two reasons. Simply put, if it is a bluff I want him to think he can bluff me out with insane overbets like this. This can pay off handsomely down the road (since you seem to play a lot of hands with him). And if it is not I don't want to go broke with two pair with so little invested. This smells like a set to me. He waited until the flush missed to make his move. You have to wonder what he thinks you have. You played it like you have a big ace or two-pair. So I would assume he thinks he can beat that. Or else he is making a monster bluff. Either way I give him a pass on this one.

I make the call here - he is just going to have to show me a set. But then again, this is exactly why I try to avoid these steal situations - I would have never raised from the BB with AJo with only the SB in. Not that it is a bad play - but it has a tendency to make your opponent put a huge bluff on you. People just hate to have their blinds stolen, and do some crazy things in steal situations. I'm one of them. (re-raised to 120 with 72o at the 1000NL yesterday ) As a consequence of that, I think if you are going to raise in a steal situation, you have to loosen up in these situations and pay off hands that you ordinarily wouldn't, simply for the fact that the chance of your opponent being on a bulff is very high. Top two with no straight or flush on board is more than enough to go to showdown here.

D

I folded and he showed 86. I wouldve called in a heartbeat, but that JT hand was all I could think about.

I cant believe he bet that flop and called my min raise with 86.

Just curious why you min-raised there. Clearly in hindsight a larger raise either scares him off his hand or makes him less likely to make this all-in play.

I think he prettly clearly put you on AK and thought he had the best hand. I would not classify this as a bluff.

I'm starting to think I should just change my username and make a living buying you off pots. Dang small variance-er and your folding top two in a battle of the blinds.

Ice- there is a key key difference in the two overbets. In the first overbet, he knows you have something strong, and knows there's a strong chance you'll call, and he has the absolute nuts. In this situation, he doesn't have the absolute nuts (AA) and there's a much smaller chance that you have a hand that you'll call IF he has something like a set. If he has AA, (the nuts) then there are VERY few hands he can put you on that he expects you to call. That being the case, this is an overbet designed to drive you out. Whereas in the first situation, there are tons of hands you'll call with, and so he's using the overbet to induce a call.

I know. It was a horrible fold. I wanted to punch my monitor.