Here's my current hypothesis. Let me know what you think.

Either the government is going to make it so difficult to send money to poker sites that nobody will bother, including most poker pros -- or they won't be able to make any dent at all in the effective traffic of sites.

In other words, the theory that "hardcore American pros will keep playing, but American fishies will be gone" -- I think that won't happen.

Here's why....

Why is it easy to deposit money right now? Because all you have to do is go to partypoker dot com or wherever, click "account," click "deposit," and a bunch of options come up. Fill in some forms and boom, your money is on its way. As long as that functionality stays in place, people will keep depositing, and there will be no change in traffic to poker sites.

Now let's say that an intermediary financial institution, somewhere in the world, finds a way to get around the new government restrictions. Doesn't matter what it's called, or who it is, or how they do it. Maybe it's a place that automatically transfers money from your US bank to a Canadian bank (or an Aruba bank, or whatever) and then transfers the money from that bank to neteller, and then on to the site. Whatever. The point is, if they're smart (and they are), the people who run the intermediary finiancial institution -- or the folks who run the poker sites -- will find a way to make it happen with one click of the mouse, just like happens today. And every poker site in the world will include a built-in feature that automatically utilizes the software.

So everything will be the same. The brunt of the difficulties will be borne by the poker sites and by the financial institutions. Somebody, somewhere, will charge somebody a fee to do all this. Perhaps some of the fee will be felt by the end-user, but I doubt it. I think the poker sites will pay the fee, just like they do now, to make sure that the gamblers keep on coming.

OK, that's my hopeful thought for the day.... Does it make any sense?

I'm not quite so optimistic, but trying to see a bright side. First of all, as I've said over and over, without fresh infusions of cash, the games will go down the drain as players pass around chips until the house has raked them all off the table. It takes money from fish to keep the wheels turning.

Second, without advertising revenues, there wil be no media. Think of the millions that Party, UB, Paradise, FT and Pokerstars spend on TV ads for our favorite poker shows. People watch, and come to play. There's little reason to believe that these ad streams will continue.

Unless people get into it on TV, they won't come play, whether on the Net or live.

We all knew the poker boom wasn't going to last. Just like any other boom, there would come a bust. There was poker played here in Vegas, even when it was a single table down at the Flamingo with Johnny Moss hosting Doyle, Chip, Puggy, etc. There were games in the 80's and early 90's, too. Just not so many. There will always be poker played somewhere. It just won't be a lucrative for so many. There will be a consolidation. It was coming sooner or later. Those of us who can take advantage of the fewer opportunities will do okay.

Now, why do I still have a small smile left? I got in before the door closed. For the last 3 years, we've been able to get the best OJT that anyone could ask for. Think of all the books we've gotten in the past 2 years which have helped us learn the game. All of the websites like BTP that helped us discuss hands and improve. And the gaming sites that let us practice, any time, day or night. I've played over 500,000 hands of poker. It would have taken the old guys 25 years to play this many hands, not to mention the gas to drive all over the states, and the risks. We won't have the stories to tell, but we've got the knowledge and experience that came with the boom and getting in at the right time.

Maybe the good times are running out, but they were going to anyway. Maybe there will only be a thousand at next year's WSOP. Perhaps the days of million dollar tournament prizes are numbered. But players made a good living for years before the Internet, and will continue, even if all the Internet poker sites go by the wayside.

Perhaps this also could be the straw that broke the camel's back, as far as the power of the radical right to dicatate what people can and can't do. When word finally gets out to people that the Congress rammed this through without any discussion, or it goes to court and the courts find that poker is a game of skill not chance and cannot be categorized the same as bingo and roulette and state lotteries, then great good would come of it. Maybe Disney (ESPN) will bring about an end to this new time of Prohibition? Who knows. It could happen.

But, regardless, those of us who have gained a lot of skill, knowledge and experience during these times may someday look back on it with fondness. The dot coms crashed, and a lot of people lost a lot of money, but the world kept turning. The sun will come up, tomorrow, too, I assure you. And every day the sun shines on some dog's ass. Let's make sure it's our ass it shines on. Find a way.

CJ

I pasted that text from an electronic copy of the bill as it stood in mid September. Articles I've read recently lead me to believe that it may have changed somewhat since then, but I can't find an electronic copy of the bill as passed.

I'm not a lawyer so I don't really know how to interpret all of this. I'm just trying to apply logic (er... to U.S. law?). I'm still not panicing.

Then again, I have 5 casinos within 30 mintues of home. I'll still be able to get my fix; it'll just be at fewer hands per hour in a carcinogen-filled environment.