As a rule, if I am the preflop raiser, I make a CB every time. Standard, right?

I've been thinking about not doing so when I have position, and I don't care for the flop.

I raise the CO with A[h] A[d] to 8. BB calls. BB is fully stacked and plays over 50 VPIP. His call could be from AK, KQ, K8, or 88.

Flop ($16) K[h] Q[d] 8[s]. He checks.

Okay, if I make my CB and get called, I'm "at risk" in the hand. I might fold the best hand fearing set or KQ. Also, the hand I want him to have here is AK, but honestly, I don't know how to stack AK there unless he's just a donk. I'm pretty worried about KK, QQ and I can't see JJ or lower calling a CB, so what's the point?

Say he has AK and I check behind. Now he'll probably call two bets on the turn and river. So I'm still getting value from AK.

The problem for me here is villain has a high VPIP so any two cards are possible. If he raises me, I'm really in trouble. I think I have him drawing to two outs or I'm drawing to two outs.

Thoughts

I made a very similar modification to my game recently and its worked out quite well.

at higher stakes, the good regulars will realize that your cb 100% of the time is probably air like 65% or the time and a hand 35% of the time and if your OOP, you will get raised alot. In position, I was getting CR'ed alot. Determining whehter to CB based on the texture of the flop, my holdings, my read on the villain, and his likely holdings became key. So in short, yes I agree with you completely.

You can also (with position) check the flop and CB the turn, maybe trying to represent a big hand trapping....

However with the example you give with AA there, I am still going to CB, if you are behind then you want to know now, what happens if he leads out big on the turn, is he stealing or was he trying to check raise you on the flop with top 2 pair?

I think the point of CB there is to get a small PP to fold instead of giving a free card, to charge QT or JT a price to suck out on you.. etc

Once again, T-Rod, youre better off betting the flop and river (with a turn check) as oppossed to the turn and river (with a flop check).

Say villain has 3 types of hands here: 1) AK, 2) KQ/888, 3) Kx, QJ, etc. Say they are equally likely here.

Bet Flop/Check Turn/Value Bet River Sceanrio:

1) I make a CB of $14, he calls. Turn ck/ck, River pot is 44 and I VB $25 and he calls. Net of $39 won. I'll add in another $5 for the times when an A hits and I stack him. Net of $44.

2) I make a CB fo $14, villain calls. Villain leads 2/3 pot for $25. Hmmm I probably call there 50/50 because I don't know if he has AK or not. So say .5 of $25 or $13. Net loss ($27).

3) I make a CB of $14, he calls. Turn ck/ck, river he folds 1/2 of the time to $25 VB. Net win of $14+14= $27

So CB has net of 44-27+27= 44 (assuming all scenarios equally likely).

Check Flop/Bet Turn & River:

1) Flop is ck/ck. Turn he bets $12 into $16 pot, I raise $35, he calls. I think he calls a river value bet of $40 1/3 of the time. Net winnings $35 +40/3 = 43

2) Flop is ck/ck. Turn he bets $14, I call. River pot is $44, I call his $25 VB. Net loss (39)

3) Flop is ck/ck. Turn he calls a $12 bet. River pot $40. He calls a $20 bet 1/2 of the time. Net win is 12+10= $22

Net of waiting till turn is 43-39+22 = $26

So unless I'm missing something big, I guess leading the flop pretty much is better.

It might be different though if I'm out of position.

What about induced bluffs on the river? He will fire more than $25 on the river IMO and will do this with a higher frequency then him check calling. If he checks through the turn and river you will won't be getting called down here too much.

Not only is betting the flop better (as you just discovered) when he has the hand range you listed, but since hes a 50%VIPer, what about when he has JT, AJ, T9 or any number of other draw type hands and you let him hit his straight for free after checking the flop?

I concede that its better to bet the flop.

However, I still think checking the flop OOP at places like Tribeca where you are likley to get multiple calling stations sponging you is a good idea from time to time.

Not here though.