Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha H/L Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
8 players


Stack sizes:
Hero: $263.75
BB: $149 (VPIP 32, PFR 8.5, AF-Tot 1.8)

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: ($10, 5 players)
SB checks, BB bets $6, 2 folds, Hero raises to $27.5, SB folds, BB calls.

Based on his stats, he either has a lower set (not very likely), something like a pair plus low draw (sort of likely) or 9T (most likely) for the nut straight. I'm a favorite (something like 60/40) if he has 9Txx without a better low draw than me. If he has 9T with a better low then I'm in trouble of course (something like 33/67). I raised gambling that my low draw was live. Is this a reckless move needlessly exposing myself to a big 3 bet or was it a well calculated risk?

Turn: ($65, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $62, BB raises all-in $119.5, Hero calls.

Well, if my low draw was live, I hit it and now I'm freerolling the nut straight. That was my plan all along so let's get the money in while I can... and the villain obliges.

River: ($304, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $304)

Results:
Final pot: $304

What do you think?

hhmmm...

if villain was not in the BB, i think this could be a really good line. but he WAS in the BB, so he could have any four -- perhaps a killer four-card hand that would be unlikely if he limped in (e.g., 249T).

for the flop, i can see cases for raising, calling, and folding.

raising is good if you know villain bets from EP with hands like low draw and a pair. this allows you to put maximum pressure on the turn if a low doesn't come and it denies pot/implied odds to janky draws that can beat you.

calling is good if you don't have a good read on the player. your position will give you better info on the turn, and you'll be better able to avoid getting a lot of your money in as a dog.

if villain is the type of player who bets EP with monsters, then folding might be a good option -- why get involved in a pot pot in which you really won't know where you stand?


barring some kind of read that suggests otherwise, i think this hand is vulnerable. as such, i'd probably call the flop and reevaluate on the turn. i prefer to play big pots with big hands, and i'm not sure this one qualifies.

also, i'd like to know if villain is a winning player or not (and over how many hands).

Looks good to me Tom. Sometimes I'd just call the flop--you've got position so you can choose to wait until an agreeable turn like this one comes along.

Thanks everyone. The villain showed down for the nut-straight. I'm surprised he didn't just re-shove the flop with the higher straight re-draw. However, since he didn't even have a qualifying low, I was actually the favorite on the flop and had a nice freeroll on the turn. Unfortunately, it didn't pay off and we chopped.

Flop
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1813622
pokenum -o8 3d jd jh 5h - 9h tc qh 6h -- js 8h 7c
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Js 7c 8h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jd 3d Jh 5h 300 300 520 0 495 0 0 0.591
Tc Qh 9h 6h 151 520 300 0 0 0 0 0.409

Turn
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1813623
pokenum -o8 3d jd jh 5h - 9h tc qh 6h -- js 8h 7c 4d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Js 7c 4d 8h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Jd 3d Jh 5h 10 10 30 0 40 0 0 0.625
Tc Qh 9h 6h 0 30 10 0 0 0 0 0.375