by Felonius_Monk » Thu Jun 08, 2006 5:59 pm
I haven't read any of the information because I don't live in america and I don't really care, but I was just going to point out that exit polls are often wrong when elections are polarised or involve emotive subjects. People often vote for the party that they want even if they feel that perhaps it's not the best choice, and will often lie or claim they voted for someone else on exit polls. I believe it's a fairly common occurrance in many elections. There's probably a term for it, though I don't know it.
Whether that would account for a reasonably large anomaly I don't know, but we did have an election in about 92 or 93 where (leading up) all opinion polls had labour (then the opposition party, as centre-left party probably closest to the democrats in the states) as slim-to-solid leaders over the conservatives (then the current government, brit equivalent of the republicans as the right of centre party). Exit polls had it as a hung parliament (where no-one wins an overall majority) or I think some early ones even declared Labour might win it by a small majority. When the dust settled the conservatives won an actual majority, which needed a LARGE swing from all the lead up polls and a small one from the exit polls. The reasoning being that voting for the conservatives was perhaps seen as not being a very acceptable thing to do, the previous leader (Margaret Thatcher) was a hate figure in many quarters and they were seen as a mean-spirited and ageing party, however, being the party of lower taxes and (presumed) fiscal responsibility, many middle class folks voted for them anyway for selfish reasons and claimed to have voted the other way.
The Monkman J[c]
"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993