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I thought this would be a good thread to discuss what people are betting on, how we're getting on, any good odds or markets you see anywhere, good offers etc.
So far I've got quite a lot of cash (for my tame betting tastes anyhow) on the first few days of matches, about $250 so far. I was going to have some on Klose to be top scorer at 22-1 but then he scored twice in the first game and fell to 5-1 on most sites
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I thought in the interests of national pride I'd better get some money on England today, betdirect.com are offering a 50% payoff match on any bet with longer than evens odds - I've put £20 on Frank Lampard to score first goal vs Paraguay at 6-1, not bad odds considering he takes the penalties for england. £200 if that comes off.
I reckon their might be a set piece goal from a corner or free kick, Paraguay have a small defence and England have the best crosser of a football in the world in Beckham, so I put a sneaky covering bet on John Terry (England central defender who goes forward for set plays) at 18-1 to score first. I also put £5 on 2-0 to England, probably a long-ish shot but I can't see Paraguay conceding too many or scoring too many and I think England will win.
I think there's a lot of value in the top goalscorer markets, Klose has just lengthened the field by scoring twice but given Germany might not get past the quarter finals, and there's some decent bets for quite long odds. Make sure you place your bet at a site that'll pay out for a joint top goalscorer (or at least pay each-way odds in this case)! I've put small bets on Adriano of Brazil at 12-1 (probably brazil's most dangerous striker these days, and they're almost bound to get to the semi-finals at least, and probably score a lot of goals along the way), Luca Toni of Italy at 20-1 (to me this is great odds for a player who top scored this year in one of the three best leagues in the world, and plays for one of the favourite teams - if you can get him at better odds than this I think it's a great bet). Also had a sneaky one on Torres of Spain, who was their top scorer in qualifying and was on great form in the Spanish league last season. Raul will be their best known striker, but Torres is very likely to start alongside him, and, given Spain have a REALLY weak qualifying group, and, I think they'll get far, makes him a decent outsider at 35-1.
In terms of outright winner, Brazil seem to be very short-odds favourites; I can't find better than 7-2 with anyone, if you can find 4-1, though, it might not be a bad bet, but they're so strongly backed I think shorter odds than that are crazy. South American teams almost never win in Europe, so Brazil and Argentina to me are about the two worst value bets out there. I like Spain, I've seen them as far out as 18-1 which seems great odds for a team with an easy qualifying group and a fine, if underrated team. Not much money on them as they always seem to fail in major tournaments but they have such a solid looking side, and they're 22 games unbeaten going into the tournament. Still an outsider but I'd say they're one of the top 5 or so teams so good value there, and I'll put some on them later. I also like Portugal, again for similar reasons, they're not that likely to win but for such a strong team (with decent pedigree in recent major tournaments, they reached the final of the last European Cup and were the best team there) odds in the 22-1 range look favourable. I absolutely hate Germany at 8-1, even as the home team, Italy at 10-1 or better might be a bit tight too given they've got such a tough qualifying group. If you fancy a REAL outsider you could probably do worse than Serbia if you can get them beyond 80-1, although they have a tought group too.
As far as I'm concerned the BEST world cup special offer I've seen is at betdirect.net, they're REFUNDING all bets placed on first scorer in any game in the tournament as long as that player scores a goal. So I figure the way to go is to put sizeable bets on fairly short-odds strikers in games where their team are strongly favoured. I have some cash on multiple games, and I think I'm going to use this offer to place bets on a lot of short-odds strikers scoring first throughout the tourney, probably most of my betting from now on. It's a fine offer because the odds they're offering are also comparable to other sites (i.e. they haven't lengthened the odds to make up for the money they'll be refunding).
So far I've put £130 on the early games and a few longer term markets, I still have £40 worth of grace/bonus bets to lay as well, after this lot of betting.
Bet: Will win:
Lampard to score 1st v Paraguay £200
Owen to score 1st £10 (plus stake back if he scores at all)
Terry to score 1st £38
England 2-0 winners £22
Sweden to win 1-0,2-0 or 3-0 v Trinidad £122.50
Larsson to score 1st £19 (plus stake back if he scores at all)
Trinidad to win £15 (silly £1 bet at 14-1 for the hell of it!)
Argentina and Ivory Coast to draw £13
Crespo to score 1st for Argentina £14 (plus stake back if he scores at all)
Drogba to score 1st for Ivory Coast £30 (plus stake back if he scores at all)
Australia to beat Japan later in the week £25 (got nice odds on this, I think it's a cert and will put some more on later)
Top goalscorer:
Luca Toni (Italy) £42
Fernando Torres (Spain) £102
Adriano (Brazil) £60
I'll probably put some money on Spain & Portugal to win later on, have a look to see if I can see any other nice looking long-term bets and probably get some more onto that fantastic first goalscorer offer at betdirect. I probably won't be betting any more on England now as it's probably spoil my enjoyment of some of their matches.
COME ON ENGLAND!
