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Do you value bet this?

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Do you value bet this?

Postby iceman5 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:26 am

I played this hand agaisnt the same villian from this hand where he slowplayed me with AA
forum/viewtopic.php?t=5436

I raise to $40 in EP. He flat calls me with [Kh][Kd]. Heads up. We both have about $1000

Pot is $95. The flop comes [Jc][8c][4d]. I bet $75 and he calls. He calls alot of my raises. He also calls alot of my flop bets and then folds the turn. He will call raises heads up with suited connectors and suited gappers which I think is why he calls the flop and then folds the turn so much. In other words he chases quite a bit but only on the flop. He also slowplays as you saw in the other posted hand. But he is not very good even though he plays seemingly non stop. I have 2000 hands with him and his win rate is -7.72 true BBs / 100 hands.

Pot is $245. The turn is the [2c]. I bet $100, he raises to $300. I call.
Pot is $845. The river is the [5s]. I check.

#1) Do you value bet KK here, if youre him? We both have about $485 left.
#2) What do I have?
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Postby k3nt » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:38 am

I hope you have a set, or the nut flush or the nut flush draw. You need to have something that at least has a chance of beating a baby flush. Otherwise, you know he chases suited connectors so you would fold to his raise on the turn (I think). (Or would he not raise when his flush hit on the turn?)

But does he know that you have figured him out that much? I doubt it. So he probably thinks he's good here and value bets, and you check-raise him all-in with the nut flush [Ac][Kc].

Just my guess.

As for what I would do in his position? I would stop trying to slowplay you with my big pairs. Since I slowplayed, I would have no idea where I stand in this hand and would check it down like the weenie I am.
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Postby laynegt » Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:46 am

if i were him, yes, i would push the rest in b/c i have the double rulers.

if i were me, i'm not so sure. I think you have [Ac][Kc] b/c you're clearly not worried about the flush even though you know he chases and folds the turn a lot. The only thing he can beat is QQ w/ the [Qc], so I think I would check.

[edit]
actually, i think you would be sure to lead out the river w/ the nuts for the last $480 since it's only half pot. i'm changing my answer to JJ. you're not necessarily afraid of the flush on the turn since you know he slowplays, and of course you have outs if he does.
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Postby bensberg » Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:07 am

I would not bet KK here if I was him. I'll take the showdown and the free info. on your hand and how you played it.

I think you have AA with the [Ac]. If I'm wrong, you probably have JJ.
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Postby Twelver » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:15 pm

I think you have AA with the [Ac], but then you like to limp in early position with that hand alot. I don't know if you have a set though either. I don't see you underbetting the pot by so much with a set on the turn. I would think you would bet the pot at least to see where you stand. The only hand I see you underbetting the pot by that much with on the turn is the nuts in hopes of looking weak and getting raised. So, having said all of that I put you on either [Ac] [Qc], or [Ac] [Kc].

Now tell me how way off I am. :lol:
Mekos King (10:21:59 PM): one of the first rules of manlaw
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Postby briachek » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:24 pm

Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby rdale » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:28 pm

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Postby T-Rod » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:36 pm

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Postby T-Rod » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:38 pm

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Postby droqqa » Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:40 pm

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Postby devilmollusk » Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:01 pm

My guess here is AA-JJ. I think if you have AA, KK, or QQ you hold a high club. I read your bet on the turn as a stab at getting him to fold. You have stated that he often calls your raises and contiuation bets but folds on the turn, so it makes sense that you would bet again here with almost any holding. However I doubt you would call his raise here with any holding, as in some cases you are just throwing money away.

I certainly would not value bet this river. I think a push might get you off your hand though, but I suppose there is a slight chance you have the nut flush. I highly doubt it though. I think with the nut flush you are smart enough to push on the turn to his raise and give him lousy odds to draw to a boat if he has trips or 2 pair.

I'd say for the record:

30% AxAc
20% KxKc
30% QxQc
20% JJ
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Postby iceman5 » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:20 pm

He bet $300 on the river. I check raised all in with my [Ac][Kc]

I didnt push the turn because it would be too obvious and I knew that he wouldnt be smart enough to check behind on the river. If he has a small flush, he was going to bet the river for sure, but I sensed that he was going to bet it with or without a flush so I let him hang himself.

You notice that alot of you guys made comments like "I dont think you have AA because you like to limp". Someone also said that I like to check raise the river and would check behind. This is why I dont give out my screen names. Anyone who reads this forum alot can too easily get a good read on me. Although a couple thought I would push the turn with a flush and I would alot of times, but not this time.
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Postby Twelver » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:35 pm

Holy Mary mother of God I got one right. :shock:
Mekos King (10:21:59 PM): one of the first rules of manlaw
Mekos King (10:22:06 PM): is never ever try to suck backup to a bitch
Mekos King (10:22:09 PM): who caught u cheatin
Mekos King (10:22:23 PM): unless your married and would lose like money inna divorce
Mekos King (10:22:33 PM): then u suckup just long enuf to get close enough to killer obv

Heat517163 (5:05:37 PM): black people man
Heat517163 (5:05:40 PM): they travel in packs
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Postby bensberg » Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:55 pm

:x <--- constipated
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Postby briachek » Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:47 pm

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