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With set-over-set on your mind...

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With set-over-set on your mind...

Postby shobute » Mon Aug 29, 2005 2:27 pm

... do you call this?

NL100, relevant stacks have 100 including me.
The big gun has been a bit loose, but I haven't seen many of his hands.

I open limp in MP with 33, two limp with me plus the BB.

Flop J93 with two clubs, pot $4.50.
BB checks and I bet $4, two callers and the BB wigs out.

Turn is a 2 in a new suit, pot $16.50.
I lead for $10 and first limper pushes for $83 more.
Other limper scrams and I'm left holding the bag.

Do you call?
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Postby BigPhish » Mon Aug 29, 2005 2:37 pm

Depends on my read. That's almost always a call. Only exception is if I've got enough hands with him to know beyond any shadow of a doubt he's got a set based on that betting pattern.

What does your PT database say about him?

In ~10k hands, I've won set-over-set once and never lost to an over-set.
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Postby Cardman » Mon Aug 29, 2005 2:37 pm

wow, a real quandary.....this is why I have been ditching 22 and 33 a lot more especially from EP and MP.

I probably let this one guy and say f*ck like 20 times
"Sometimes its all about making the wrong move at the right time"
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Postby Alchemist » Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:11 pm

I go with this every time.
There are no made straights or flushes out there and the only hand which I think you have to worry about is 99 (would villain raise PF with JJ ?).
There are a hell of a lot of holdings which villain could like and put his stack at risk for (AJ, KJ, J9, QTs, T8s, 22 even A9 depending on muppet rating). The fact that he's pushed for such a large amount might mean that he doesn't want a call indicating a club or straight draw but this is obviously read dependant - what does a large push mean, would he really do that with JJ and scare people off?
I call and if he does have 99, JJ or catches a draw then so be it. You will win a lot more times than lose in this situation.
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Postby AlexMR » Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:16 pm

Dont fold that ever!!

Not even to a rock or calling station with 0.45 AF (well...that´s something to think about). I see many players doing that with overpairs after a limp. He could have two pair also. J2, J9 more likely.

If he has the set so be it!! I think calling that is EV+.

AlexMR.
[17:16] alitomr: http://micropenis.ws/forum/viewtopic.php?t=723
[17:19] mekosking: wow
[17:19] mekosking: i give that poof a week tops
[17:19] mekosking: before he snuffs it
[17:19] mekosking: I THINK THAT MAY BE NV
[17:20] mekosking: IN DISGUISE
[17:20] alitomr: LOLZ
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Postby T-Rod » Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:17 pm

I call.

I'm just not folding a set in a pot with no draws.

Also, you're not bottom set. Wouldn't JJ raise pf? So you're up against 99 vs. 22. or 50/50 just on sets. That's not counting any kind of two pair hand or bluff or overpair or whatever.
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Postby shobute » Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:24 pm

I told myself "I'm not weak tight, I'm not weak tight", clicked my heels and called.
With all the talk of set-over-set recently I was reluctant.
But ultimately, if he has a higher set here, so be it.

He showed J9 of hearts. It didn't improve. :D

I only have 60 hands with him in which he's 24% VPIP.
Not saying much.

Alchemist, I agree with your analysis... personally I mostly limp JJ because I feel I get more value from hitting a covert set. But lots of people would raise it, especially in LP with only one MP limper in the pot.

Thanks all for the replies!
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Postby iceman5 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 4:44 pm

Easy call. If he has a higher set, I punch my monitor, go get some ice for my hand and reload. I'll call it again next time also. I just might have to use my left hand to punch the monitor next time.
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Postby WildBillHickok » Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:24 pm

yes, pretty easy call...he figured you would have slowplayed a set and not bet...your bet made you look weak, so he thought he was good.
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Postby Rhound50 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:54 pm

This is a call 99% of the time. The only way I would ever fold this is if I had specific knowledge that this player like to overbet with sets. I have seen people that do it but for the most part this is an easy call. There are so many hands that you beat that I have seen played like this, AA, KK QQ, AJ, A9, 22, or even a draw and the only hands that beat you are 99 and JJ.
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Postby Cardman » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:11 pm

glad I came back to see others input...lesson learned!
"Sometimes its all about making the wrong move at the right time"
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Postby k3nt » Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:34 pm

I think the short answer is that set over set should never be on your mind in the first place.
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Postby TxBuckeye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 3:15 pm

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Postby Chris-bg » Tue Aug 30, 2005 3:40 pm

There is no knowledge that is not power.
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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Aug 30, 2005 4:39 pm

I guess maybe it depends on what level you consider higher level, but I limp will limp with any PP in ep or mp. I dont see much difference between 6s -8's and pocket 2's. With either hand you can take a stab at a pot on a tight table amd without a set you dont beat any hands when you get called. I have read some people who dont like to play small pairs like 2's and 3's. For my game 22- 55 are some of my most profitable hands. I can fold when I miss and often win a big pot when I hit.
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