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Who is the fish here???

Hand analysis. Post your trouble hands here

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Postby Devilbrat » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:44 am

Ummmmmmmm Kenny,

If you read the post I called all of us fish, myself included because we are all guilty of making the same mistake (Letting emotion drive our decisions instead of facts).

All the "he had pot odds" is just an after the fact justification. I am trying to help all of us here by indentifying what I think is a problem we all encounter from time to time. If I wanted to make Ricardoon feel good I would have agreed with the pot odds argument.

Before I get more flack for what I have said so far let me pose this scenario for you all.
Need some input from you also Ricardoon

Would any of you put your entire stack in the middle here on the turn if you had just sat down at the table and were playing the first hand you were dealt?
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Postby Kowskie » Mon Sep 12, 2005 8:26 am

I am disappointed nobody complimented me on my role in the hand from seat 7!
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Postby dartplayer1 » Mon Sep 12, 2005 8:30 am

If your a numbers player you make the same play everytime even if it's the first hand at the table.

I know I have been in hands that I should not have been in, But then I will try to make the best play by the numbers from there on out.

The thing is with this player I really do not think she has a clue!!!!
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Postby kennyg » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:24 am

The reason Rich put in his entire stack was because he had a good read on his opponent, not because he couldn't control his emotions. He explains in the first post about how this calling station would call down to the river with any pair, no matter how many chips were thrown at her.

He changed his play based on the read he had. He wasn't clouded by emotions, he knew for a fact she would call with an inferior hand.
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Postby k3nt » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:44 am

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Postby k3nt » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:50 am

In response to the debate on how to figure pot odds, I like the way TUP tends to explain things:

If you have 15 outs on the turn and have to call all-in, then

15 times you win $X [X = pot size BEFORE the bet; don't count your bet!]
31 times you lose $Y. [Y = your bet]

(15*x - 31*y)/46 = your EV.

Since all you want to know is whether your EV is positive or negative, you can skip the dividing by 46 part.

In this case, it's 15 outs, call 102 to win 146.

15*146 = well under $3,000
31*102 = over $3,000.
That's all the math you need.
The call is -EV.
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Postby wreck27 » Mon Sep 12, 2005 12:23 pm

Ok, not to beat a dead horse but I never thought Rich was the fish here. I could have never put her on that hand seeing how she played to the turn. First hand or 100th hand I dont want to risk my entire stack with TP against a known calling station. There are better opportunities to teach her a lesson.

I'm at work now so I can't confirm but I feel certain Sklanky's way to figure pot odds was the entire pot including your bet. The fact that most of you have been doing this longer than me makes me feel that I'm wrong here. It wouldn't be the first time though, so I gotta check and see.
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Postby kennyg » Mon Sep 12, 2005 12:24 pm

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
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Postby kennyg » Mon Sep 12, 2005 12:26 pm

don't feel too bad wreck, hell i always thought 2.93 to 1 was the same thing as hitting a hand 1in 2.93 times. at least we both learned something.
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Postby Ricardooon » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:51 pm

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