Villian in this hand seems to be fairly solid although in the 500 hands I have with him...hes down $900. Im almost positive he has T9 or 2 pair. I know he doesnt have a flush. Here was my reasoning:

Lets say its 75% chance of T9 and 25% chance he has 2 pair.
Im getting 2.3-1 on my call


25%....2 pair....9-1 fav
75%...straight...3.5-1 dog

Without doing all the math right now, I think its a fairly good call. What do you think? Someone want to do that math? Aisthesis..where are you?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

Hero ($594.56)
MP2 ($382)
MP3 ($294.7)
CO ($384)
Button ($431.4)
SB ($835.2)
BB ($352.4)
UTG ($384.2)
UTG+1 ($819.3)
UTG+2 ($345.2)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , . SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 4 folds, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($20) , , (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets $19.99, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $19.99, Hero raises to $60, SB folds, BB raises to $124.99, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $64.99.

Turn: ($289.97) (2 players)
BB calls $223.41 (All-In), Hero calls $223.41.

River: ($736.79) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $736.79

My question is if you were going to call the rest on the turn anyway, why not all-in on the flop when re-raised? That's a very coordinated board and either you're beat and will stay beat, or you're ahead but can get outdrawn. Not sure if it affects the EV at all, though. Maybe just psychological for me that I'd rather go down pushing than calling.

-- Oh, and pushing on the flop makes turn decisions so much easier

I agree with Z completely here, there are to many turn cards that scare you and to few the help your hand, he reraises enough that the pot is already pretty nice, I either reraise all in on the flop or fold. What really scares me is that he is on or [10c]. He is in the BB so unless you hit your one outter for quads, you are not sure you want to improve your hand and any 9, 10, or clubs is a scare card.

I fold. I can't see you beating any hand here if he really is a solid player. Also, I would have raised more on the flop, you only raised 1/2 pot. That's a hell of a scary board and you don't wanna price in the second guy who is obviously drawing, although first guy's re-raise apparently took care of that.

If your 75% sure he has the straight on the flop fold there and save yourself the money. If your 50% straight 50% 2 pair then push in on the flop.

Folding the flop is bad. Im getting 3-1 to call his reraise and if the board pairs I still may bust his straight. He pushed in with a flush on the board, he probably wouldve done it with a pair on the board.

I also have a tendency to put blinds on two-pair type hands rather than sets - and it has burned me in the past. JJ and 88 are possibilities here - and even a mediocre player would know enough not to slowplay on that board. All these hands I think are possibilities: JJ, 88, J8, J7, 87, 9T. Let's do math!

You are ahead of:

J8 - 9 ways ---> he has 4 outs
J7 - 3 ways ---> he has 2 outs
87 - 3 ways ---> he has 2 outs

Behind of

JJ - 3 ways ---> you have 1 out
88 - 3 ways ---> you have 1 out
9T - 16 ways ----> you have 10 outs.

44 unseen cards....

(40/44*(513)-4/44*(223))*9 = (20520-892)/44*9 = 4014
(42/44*(513)-2/44(223))*2*6 = (21546-446)/44*12 = 5754
(1/44*(513)-43/44*(223))*2*6 = (513-9589)/44*12 = -2475
(10/44*(513)-34/44*(223))*16 = (5130-7582)/44*16 = -891

summing....
=+6401/(22+15)= $173 profit per call

so this is a positive expectation call.

However, I think hands like J7 and 87 are less likely, and maybe adding a % chance that your opponent would play the hand this way component to the mix would shift the balance.

Hope my math is correct!

D

The more that I think about this hand - the more I believe that math is going to be irrelevant in this one.

What hands does he put you on? When you raise on the flop - You could have the following hands: JT, AJ, 77, 88, JJ, or 9T or 87. I dont think J7 or J8 are possiblilties for you here. He then re-raises on the flop. Which means he certainly can beat one pair, and probably 87, for that matter. When you call that bet - I think this leaves 77, 88, JJ, or 9T as possibilties for you. I dont think you would call the re-raise with less.

When he goes all-in on the turn, he is pretty much saying that he likes his chances against that set of hands. This leaves only 88, JJ, or 9T for him as possibilties, 9T being the most likely.

I dont think 2 pair is a likely holding for him here, considering your read that he is a somewhat solid player. Even if you take JJ and 88 out of the picture for him, you are drawing to a 10 outer on the turn here - you would need 3.4:1 pot odds to call - which you are not getting.

I think a fold is in order.

D