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QQ..trust my read?

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QQ..trust my read?

Postby iceman5 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:04 pm

$5/$10 NL

UTG and UTG+1 limp. I raise to $50 with QQ. Only UTG calls. No read. We both have full stacks.

Pot is $125. Flop comes 852 rainbow. He checks, I bet $90 and he calls.
Pot is $315. Turn is a 4. He checks, I check behind. I have a bad feeling. What did he limp UTG with that he would call that flop with? JJ, TT or a set I think. If I bet the turn and get check raised, I have to fold and I may fold the best hand if he has JJ or TT. I will check and call his river bet.

Pot $315 The river is a Q!. He bets $190. Does he have a set or JJ / TT and think I have AK? No doubt in my mind that I have the winner but how do I get the most value?

How much do you raise and what do you put him on? Dont narrow it down to what I put him on, it could be something different of course.
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Postby geewhiz » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:32 pm

I would just push here.

I dont think JJ or TT or 99 or 77 would call a smaller river raise anyway (because of the Q), so I wouldnt worry about losing value by pushing.

I think his most likely holding is a set. (it could also be a wierdly played AA or KK). Slim chance of 67s in which case you're SOL.
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Postby AlexMR » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:40 pm

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Postby Jav » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:44 pm

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Postby kennyg » Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:21 pm

there's still a possibilty of 67 here...look out :)

i'd raise to $500.

I disagree with alex. I check all the time in these situations. Theres not much he's gonna call with on that flop...and the straight draw hit. If you get raised you have to fold. If you check, you might very well induce a bluff..and on otheroccasions save your stack.

You can certainly make a case for betting the turn.....but against UTG i would be checking everytime. Just my opinion.
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Postby briachek » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:23 pm

I agree with what others say that if he has a set, he isn't folding and he isn't calling a raise with much else. Your only problem would be scaring away AA/KK but your push could look like AQ so I just push as you'll stack him often enough. If he has 67, you'll need a new mouse after you hurl it across the room.
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Postby Mad Genius » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:43 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:01 pm

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Postby AlexMR » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:08 pm

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Postby kennyg » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:25 pm

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
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Postby rdale » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:38 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:46 pm

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Postby kennyg » Tue Aug 02, 2005 12:01 am

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
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Postby cholo loco » Tue Aug 02, 2005 3:38 am

if he was channeling stu i assure you he wouldnt have made a big laydown. stuey made a lot of great plays but ot a lot of great laydowns, i dont think so.
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Postby k3nt » Tue Aug 02, 2005 8:25 am

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