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Strange hand with a river overbet, 200NL SH.

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Strange hand with a river overbet, 200NL SH.

Postby Zmej » Wed Jan 17, 2007 8:42 am

Opponent runs at about 15/6/1.5 after 70 hands.
I was rather active like 29/17/2,5.
Effective stacks 300$.

Preflop:
CO raises to 8, I call with [8s] [8h] OTB, blinds fold.
Flop (19): [Ts] [5c] [2h]
CO bets 12, I call.
Turn (43): [9h]
CO checks, I bet 33, he calls.
River (109): [4d]
CO pushes 200, I?

I guess most will say to fold here.
The real question: what do I need to call here?
Among the strongest hand that I could have here are JJ, T9, sets (22, 55, 44, 99,TT).
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby Electrolux » Wed Jan 17, 2007 8:59 am

Last edited by Electrolux on Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
- Mexicans are filthy. I once blew a Mexican. I had diarrhea for a week. Sarah Silverman

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Postby Yliherra » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:12 am

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Postby High Wired » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:14 am

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Postby Zmej » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:33 am

IMO there is close to zero chance that opponent has AA-QQ here.
I would put him on a set, or [Ah] [3h] with this action. I am still unsure if he has any bluff in his range.
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Location: France. (Russian origin.)

Postby Electrolux » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:36 am

- Mexicans are filthy. I once blew a Mexican. I had diarrhea for a week. Sarah Silverman

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Postby WayToGo » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:37 am

Taking shots, one at a time.
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Postby T-Rod » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:57 am

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Postby Zmej » Wed Jan 17, 2007 10:11 am

I wouldn't put villian on an overpair with this play, I doubt that anyone would value push river with such overbet with only AA. IMO it is a bluff with AK or something close to the nuts.
In this analysis hands 88, JJ, T9, 22 have the same value as bluff catchers.
While 55, 99, TT have more value as they beat a set of 4 here (quite possible holding too).
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Location: France. (Russian origin.)

Postby T-Rod » Wed Jan 17, 2007 10:22 am

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