by Aisthesis » Sat Oct 01, 2005 1:41 am
Well, I don't particularly like the flop checkraise, particularly on this board. That's a flop that will likely have hit someone and you have a decent chance of getting raised here.
I really think AK is a strange hand to have in that spot. It's not raised, then he bets out rather than trying to hit his overcard or draw to the T. And, while I also don't like the small checkraise quantity here, he then is supposed to be calling the checkraise with only 4 outs if ice has the represented 2 pair. Anyhow, sure, it's somewhere in the hand range of a bad player, but I don't see it. Nor do I see his moving in on the turn with the nuts. A possible hand, sure, but imo unlikely. And, if AK is in the mix at all, so is 98, I suppose, although even more bizarre.
Ok, so there's QQ and JJ, again rather odd in an unraised pot. And TT I really find hard to believe, although that's also possible--some people see PP and think it's just great until the bitter end.
So, those are the hands that beat you, and while they're imo all possible, they seem strange at least (but, of course, bad players often play strangely!).
AQ would also be grossly overvalued but presumably possible.
I'm with Alex, though, on this one. I think most likely are QJ and QT. The turn bet also in principle doesn't want a caller, although ice's very strong turn bet (if the guy is sensitive to that fact) does give him some reasons to think that he'll still call a huge bet.
I'll call this one in the opinion that more often than not he's going to turn over QJ or QT, but you could need help vs. AK or even be drawing dead to a 3 against an overset. I just consider those possibilities fairly remote--or, I think you win this one at least 50% of the time.