Advanced search

Set of 3's

Hand analysis. Post your trouble hands here

Moderators: iceman5, LPF Police Department

Set of 3's

Postby iceman5 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:51 pm

$1/$2 NL

I limp in EP with 33. MP limps and both blinds are in.

Pot is $8. Flop comes QJ3. Blinds check, I check and MP who is not very good bets $4. Folded back to me and I check raise to $10. He calls.

Pot is $28. The turn is a T. I bet $25 and he pushes all in for about $150.

What does he have?
iceman5 [As]
User avatar
iceman5
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 13875
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:49 pm
Location: Texas

Postby wreck27 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:00 pm

He has QT/QJ I call if he is not very good. I assume this is a rainbow board and he wasnt pushing on a flush draw or you would have mentioned that.
“The real things to know is that folks will stand to lose more than they will to win. That’s the most important percentage there is. I mean, if they lose, they’re willin’ to lose everything. If they win, they’re usually satisfied to win enough to pay for dinner and a show. The best gamblers know that.” - Pug Pearson
User avatar
wreck27
 
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:05 am
Location: Raleigh, NC

Postby stoiter » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:23 pm

he likes the turn card alot... and when bad players go all in when a draw hits.. it either means they love the card or are scared of the card..

this could be one of those hands where he has say JJ and does the old.. get scared go all in when a draw hits for no reason job...

tho i still think he'll have QT/QJ most of the time..
User avatar
stoiter
 
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2005 12:52 am

Postby devilmollusk » Fri Sep 30, 2005 6:42 pm

I think he made his straight. AK (poorly played), K9
"This is where you type something witty" -- Anonymous
User avatar
devilmollusk
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:52 pm

Postby Stoneburg » Fri Sep 30, 2005 7:21 pm

User avatar
Stoneburg
 
Posts: 5931
Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 9:03 pm
Location: Sweden

Postby Tordan » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:24 pm

I'm thinking that if he had JJ or QQ he would have gone all in when you checkraised him, rather then call.

So i put him on AKo
User avatar
Tordan
 
Posts: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:54 am
Location: San Diego

Postby iceman5 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:44 pm

So you guys putting him on AK are folding?
iceman5 [As]
User avatar
iceman5
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 13875
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:49 pm
Location: Texas

Postby Tordan » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:57 pm

Yeah.
..but I've gotten down right cautious. It has raised my BB/100 too.
User avatar
Tordan
 
Posts: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:54 am
Location: San Diego

Postby shobute » Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:13 pm

There's a lot of hands he could have.

If he has a made straight (unlikely), you still have a good number of outs.
If he has a pair and a straight draw (likely), you are ahead now.
If he has two pair and no straight draw (possible), you are ahead.

I call.

There's too many times that you're leading, and if not you still have outs.
User avatar
shobute
 
Posts: 1902
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:12 am

Postby rdale » Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:20 pm

User avatar
rdale
 
Posts: 1743
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:10 pm

Postby Stoneburg » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:20 pm

User avatar
Stoneburg
 
Posts: 5931
Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 9:03 pm
Location: Sweden

Postby AlexMR » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:58 pm

[17:16] alitomr: http://micropenis.ws/forum/viewtopic.php?t=723
[17:19] mekosking: wow
[17:19] mekosking: i give that poof a week tops
[17:19] mekosking: before he snuffs it
[17:19] mekosking: I THINK THAT MAY BE NV
[17:20] mekosking: IN DISGUISE
[17:20] alitomr: LOLZ
User avatar
AlexMR
 
Posts: 3851
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2005 11:27 am

Postby Aisthesis » Sat Oct 01, 2005 1:41 am

Well, I don't particularly like the flop checkraise, particularly on this board. That's a flop that will likely have hit someone and you have a decent chance of getting raised here.

I really think AK is a strange hand to have in that spot. It's not raised, then he bets out rather than trying to hit his overcard or draw to the T. And, while I also don't like the small checkraise quantity here, he then is supposed to be calling the checkraise with only 4 outs if ice has the represented 2 pair. Anyhow, sure, it's somewhere in the hand range of a bad player, but I don't see it. Nor do I see his moving in on the turn with the nuts. A possible hand, sure, but imo unlikely. And, if AK is in the mix at all, so is 98, I suppose, although even more bizarre.

Ok, so there's QQ and JJ, again rather odd in an unraised pot. And TT I really find hard to believe, although that's also possible--some people see PP and think it's just great until the bitter end.

So, those are the hands that beat you, and while they're imo all possible, they seem strange at least (but, of course, bad players often play strangely!).

AQ would also be grossly overvalued but presumably possible.

I'm with Alex, though, on this one. I think most likely are QJ and QT. The turn bet also in principle doesn't want a caller, although ice's very strong turn bet (if the guy is sensitive to that fact) does give him some reasons to think that he'll still call a huge bet.

I'll call this one in the opinion that more often than not he's going to turn over QJ or QT, but you could need help vs. AK or even be drawing dead to a 3 against an overset. I just consider those possibilities fairly remote--or, I think you win this one at least 50% of the time.
User avatar
Aisthesis
 
Posts: 3285
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 9:36 am

Postby iceman5 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:55 am

I actually might play AK this way sometimes. I limp every now and then with it. If I did limp, then Im definately betting the flop when checked to and last to act (I would bet the pot though). If I got check raised a small amount, I might peel one off because of implied odds.

However, I didnt think ther was a chance in hell that he had AK. Most people just dont play that way. I was almost positive that he had QT.

I called. He actually had JT.
iceman5 [As]
User avatar
iceman5
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 13875
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:49 pm
Location: Texas

Postby Tordan » Sat Oct 01, 2005 8:13 am

hmmmmmm.
User avatar
Tordan
 
Posts: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:54 am
Location: San Diego

Next

Return to No Limit Hold'em Cash Games

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests

cron