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River Decision

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River Decision

Postby gdaviet » Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:33 pm

Here's an example of a hand I hope will elicit some feedback.

Setup: $50NL - Full 10 players
Player 1: Very agressive pre-flop & post-flop player - Cut-off position
Player 2: Solid, Tight-Aggressive player, farily passive pre-flop - Early position

Player 1: Ad 9d
Player 2: unknown

Pre-flop: Player 2 limps, Player 1 raises, Player 2 calls (other players eliminated for simplicity)

Flop: Jh Th 8s
Player 2 checks, Player 1 bets pot, Player 2 calls (quickly)

Turn: Jh Th 8s 3d
Player 2 bets 1/5 Pot, Player 1 hesitates and calls

River: Jh Th 8s 3d 4s
Pot Size: $34
Player 2 bets $15 ...

Notes: Player 1 has $35 left to bet
There is no typo, player 1 has only A high

I've been thinking about this particular situation a bunch. I'm interested in what you all think.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:42 pm

fold... He has at least a piece of it, I don't think you have enough to get him to fold, and if you wanted to represent a big hand, you should've raised the turn...
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Postby shamdonk » Thu Sep 15, 2005 4:24 pm

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Postby gdaviet » Thu Sep 15, 2005 4:35 pm

Folding sure looks like the best option here. I don't think a raise will get Player 2 to fold much of anything.

Shamrock: Clarification - Player 1 is the over-aggressive player. It was Player 2 that made the small bet.

The bet on the turn smells fishy to me. There is no made hand that is strong enough to bet so small. If this player was a solid winning player, I'd think it was just a stupid sized bet. Since he is a better player, it feels more like a blocking bet than a value bet. It certainly isn't a field thinning bet since it's too small to force anyone to fold.
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Sep 15, 2005 6:29 pm

iceman5 [As]
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Postby gdaviet » Thu Sep 15, 2005 8:01 pm

ok, ok, I admit ... I was player 1.

I also admit, I didn't fold.

Can anyone guess what happened to me?
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Postby shamdonk » Thu Sep 15, 2005 8:22 pm

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Postby ua1176 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:43 am

i agree with Shamrock. people who bet less than 1/2 pot need to be regularly disciplined through big raises. i also agree that you need to fold this instantly. i think this could be a poorly played [Kh][Qh], [Ah][Kh], or a busted flush draw in general. but i also think that for every time you see those there'll be 10 times where you see some yahoo with a stupid pair. additionally...you lose even to [Ah][Kh].

jon
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Postby rdale » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:43 am

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Postby kennyg » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:19 am

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
-Iceman

Proud contributing member of the Poker Player's Alliance.
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Postby black_knight6 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:19 am

You need to recognize when to give up on hands. You made a fine semi-bluff on the flop, but got called...that should be sending huge alarm bells and red flags to slow down/stop pressing all together. The "solid tight player" read you have should also tell you that when he calls a preflop raise, calls a pot flop bet, AND leads into you on the turn...however, you're getting good odds to call on the turn and you do. Since he's shown that he has a hand and is willing to take the lead from you, you need to know that bluffing is NOT an option - and remember that bluffing only works when you correctly pick your spots...this is not one of them. Bluffing works when you've got a good read on your opponent - that they are showing GENUINE weakness - and that youre move doesn't LOOK like a move :P. Too many people are in your position - with what THEY think is a significant portion of their stack committed - and think that they should do whatever they can to win the hand...well, guess what? It's just going to cost you far more chips in the end to take that line, than just mucking and waiting for a better hand. Basic, solid Low limit NL strategy can be summed up in a Weak Tight strategy that may cause you to get bluffed off of hands, but allows you to see the showdown for most of THEIR stack when you're nearly sure that you're going to win...sure you're not totally maximizing EV, but who cares? At the $50 and $100 level, pushing small edges is wholly unnecessary for a good win rate, and only introduces higher variance: save your good moves for higher limits where you NEED to start pushing edges...
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Postby gdaviet » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:48 am

Thanks guys. Great input. Here's what happened and what the heck I was thinking.

I tend to play a fairly straight forward aggressive strategy (ie. I'll raise any unraised pot I want to enter, I'll bet any flop into a tight opponent, I bet my made hands, I rarely call ... plain vanilla aggression without being a maniac).

This hand was proceeding as normal. After several limpers, I made a large pre-flop raise and got one taker. He's what I consider solid ... PFA ~ 2, WTSD% ~ 15-20, PFR% 3 - 5. He's not getting creative with most of his hands, but he's not doing a lot of calling either.

I flop an open ended straight draw. Not the greatest flop for my hand, but it will do after Mr. Solid checks to me. I make my standard bet (really expecting a fold or a raise) and he CALLS me so fast, it's like he had knnown he was calling any bet. Clue #1.

The turn comes a blank and now he makes this sheepish bet into me. Clue #2 This bet is only about 60% of the bet he CALLED on the flop. I think for quite a while on this. Finally I decide on 1 of 2 possibilities. 1) He flopped a set, thinks I'm drawing nearly dead, and is hoping for small payoff. 2) He flopped a big draw, missed the turn, and wants to get odds for the river. I don't feel sure on either possibility, so raising or folding both seem like bad options. I chose to call. I take so long to figure this all out, that my call must look very weak. Clue #3

The river brings another blank. Now this solid player bets half the pot. This doesn't match his turn bet at all. I go into think mode and review my clues. #1 He is auto-calling the flop. #2 His bet on the turn could be blocking for a draw #3 My turn call looked weak.

With my three clues, a large river bet for value doesn't seem to make sense. If he's that strong, and I'm that weak, he can't figure to get a call. If he has a hand like Ah Kh, this bet doesn't make a lot of sense as a bluff. If I'm really that weak, his A is probably good ... why would he risk so much to find out? Another blocking bet would probably do the trick since it could also look like another value bet.

The only thing that makes sense to me here is a big missed draw. I put him on exactly Kh Qh and decide to make the call. Now, players like this one are rare at this level. Many of them are all over the place and unreadable. I'm getting 3 to 1 from the pot. A raise makes no sense here, because I'm not going to win any more money if I'm right, but I'll almost certainly lose it all if I'm wrong.

Turns out I was slightly off. He had the 7h 6h, but the pieces still fit for that hand as well. This is one of the few times I was able to use all those chapters and articles on reading players and reading hands that I've read.

The general response I got from the table was 'WOW' ... that felt pretty good.

Comments?
Last edited by gdaviet on Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby shamdonk » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:58 am

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