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Raised all in on the flop....twice

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Raised all in on the flop....twice

Postby iceman5 » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:37 pm

Here are 2 hands where I got raised all in on the flop.
Both are $2/$4 NL. No reads on either villain.

#1) I raise to $16 UTG with [Qh][Qd]. The button calls and we're heads up. I have a full stack and he has about $240.

Pot is $38. The flop comes [8s][4s][2h]. I bet $32 and he pushes all in. This looks like a flush draw to me. Not many people push $225 all in into a $70 pot with a set.

However, if he has a flush draw and overcards hes the favorote. He has flush draw and 1 overcards hes not far behind. And if hes trying to trick me with the big overbet and has AA / KK or a set, Im in big trouble. Considering all this, do you still call here?

#2) UTG raises to $14, I reraise to $48 with [Ah][Ac]. He calls and we're heads up. He started with $420 and I have $825.

Pot is $100. The flop comes [Kd][8d][4s]. He checks, I bet $80 and he check raises all in. I actually put him on AK here, but he could have the flush draw also. Easy call? Ths one is 6 max if it matters
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Postby Stoneburg » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:47 pm

#1
I'd rather not call there. If I had AA I would, KK with the Ks maybe, but with QQ there are too many ways to be behind. Wouldn't be surprised if he showed A8 or something stupid like two OC's or a low PP, but if that is the case there will be better opportunities to stack him.

#2
That one I do call. Just like you, I put him on AK here. KK would re-raise preflop most likely so you're only behind to 88. However, there's something fishy here in the way you present it, as well as the scenario...
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Postby Jav » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:55 pm

Hand 1 I probably fold. Like you I suspect a flush draw, but likely with at least 3 more outs. He might have played a small suited connector and has a flush draw with a gut shot, or a flush draw and an overcard. Add this to the chance that you are beat and I doubt it would be profitable to call.

Hand 2 is a little stranger. You are either way ahead or way behind. I think AK is more likely than KK, but I think KK is in the range of hands he could have. I think I call and just deal with it if he has a set. AQ seems like the only possible flush draw, and that flop doesn't seem like a good time to semi-bluff with a flush draw since the K would likely have helped you by his estimation.
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Postby T-Rod » Wed Sep 07, 2005 4:01 pm

1) I think I fold. Even after taking some time to think about it, I still can't feel too good about QQ. You are pretty close to a coin flip here, and I'd prefer better opportunity.

2) His pfr of 14 seems a bit high for 88 or 44 (even for 6max) OOP. So you are behind only KK. You squish everything else, and I agree that a CR all-in is very probable play for AK who can put you on QQ/JJ/ etc. I call.
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Postby iceman5 » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:43 pm

#1) I was virtually certain that he had a flush draw so I called. He had [Ks][Js] and hit his flush. UGH!

#2) No way Im folding this one. I called and he had [Ad][Qd] and hit his flush. UGH!
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Postby AlexMR » Wed Sep 07, 2005 8:28 pm

There is a very good chance I woiuld have folded because you are behind to AKs also. Slightly, though.

Hand 2, I couldnt fold it, I think there is a chance he has KK. In that case I m paying him.

I have been having sessions with WtSD of 12%! I am getting weak tight but i guess thats good in my case, I´m coming from 25% wtsd.
[17:16] alitomr: http://micropenis.ws/forum/viewtopic.php?t=723
[17:19] mekosking: wow
[17:19] mekosking: i give that poof a week tops
[17:19] mekosking: before he snuffs it
[17:19] mekosking: I THINK THAT MAY BE NV
[17:20] mekosking: IN DISGUISE
[17:20] alitomr: LOLZ
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Postby T-Rod » Wed Sep 07, 2005 8:38 pm

Man that's tough.

Is a push all in like that usually a flush draw at 2/4?
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Postby AlamedaMike » Wed Sep 07, 2005 8:51 pm

Educational hands - thanks for the post - hand #2 is a bad beat as you know 63 / 37 -ouch - good call.

I would have folded hand #1 but call with hand #2 but I do not play at your stakes except in a live game. Live I know the players better. Online I am kind of lost on the reads.
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Postby kennyg » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:58 pm

I would be more inclined to call hand 1 with a spade in my hand...


hand #2 has to be called i think.
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Postby wolvish » Thu Sep 08, 2005 9:05 am

#1 - With flush draw out, no read, and a vast overbet on the flop, I'm calling here. This is such a typical play. Even thinking about percentages, the only hands to be worried about are 88, 44, and 22. He might just call on the button with AA or KK, but I doubt it. He's certaintly, unless he's a complete jackass, not going to sandbag an AKs. However, he might be smooth calling Axs, suited connector, or as in this case, a suited king (or KQo, KJo for that matter. And very few people will go allin with a set on the flop here. Raise, yes, because of the flush draw, but not such a large allin raise.

If you are worried about the straight flush draw...well, might as well stop playing right now. Plus, I don't see the problem with calling an allin against a man with one over and a flush draw. I'm willing to take a little variance when I'm going in with the best hand, even if its only going to win 54% of the time. Plus, Ice has no read on this guy. Waiting for a better opportunity to stack someone usually applies when you know he is going to make another bonehead move down the line. Personally, I'd take my chances here and hope my hand holds.

#2 - Call every time. The only way that flop could have been better is if it were raindow and completely unconnected.
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