Ok, first a few loose ends on that first post: The interesting part is that x almost doesn't matter on the straight draw, as long as you can still get 1/2 the pot out of it on the second bet. And I think that assumption also becomes a little dubious when x becomes quite large--you get more flop fold equity in reality with a large x, but it's harder to get 1/2 pot out of it later in the hand.

For the moment (don't know whether I'm going to be able to finish this one at this hour), let me just say where I'm trying to go with this. As I've noted earlier, I like a consistent raise on our hypothetical board of K54 with KQ, 55, 44, and, if we have a suited board, AXs.

If someone bets $25 into a pot of $25, then I just don't like raising to less than $75 under any circumstances. But, given variations among players, I'd like to attach some sort of "fold factor" here to the actual raising quantity--i.e., make that actual raise a bit player-dependent.

Also, there's something of an upper limit on the amount one would like to raise. Anything more than about $125, which is already an overbet, seems to me a bit excessive, although one could also think in terms of stack-sizes here. If you bet right around half of your opponent's stack (assuming he's not a huge stack), then the half pot follow-up bet is the rest of it. Still, even if he has $300 in front of him at the beginning of the hand, it seems to me a little over the top to raise to $150 in that situation, although it might not be a bad bet.

Anyhow, what I'm wondering about is what to consider in deciding on a bet range (and keeping the set bet and the KQ bet in mind) somewhere between $75 and perhaps as much as $150 or half of available stack-depth.

Ok, thinking about this some more, I think the main result here is that the actual raising quantity on the flop is more or less irrelevant. Hence, keeping the raise in line with the information bet just makes sense--i.e., $100 in the given scenario.

What I think the real question is is whether or not to follow up with a bet of 2/3 pot on a missed turn.

My only real answer is that this is where you really just have to know your player. If he respects your bets and is even moderately tight (needing at least 2 pair to make the call), then it's certainly worth it. You only need about 50% fold equity (actually slightly less) for the move to be profitable.

Essentially, in that scenario, the only turn scare card is really a Q. Also, since you have position, you can see whether you're getting a bet or not.