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QJ lucky?

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QJ lucky?

Postby AlamedaMike » Sun Sep 11, 2005 10:59 am

The risk that we take by play marginal hands like QJs is that you sometimes get lucky and the unlucky because of re-draws.

FullTiltPoker Game #214729495: Table Crestline - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: csteg21 ($49.60)
Seat 2: WyattE ($35.60)
Seat 3: AlamedaMike ($52.20)
Seat 4: I Donate ($49.20)
Seat 5: DawgWiz ($38.35)
Seat 6: badazzbeatz ($10.15)
Seat 7: pipes16 ($16.50)
Seat 8: johnpmaniac ($49.25)
Seat 9: pete4477 ($49.55)

badazzbeatz posts the small blind of $0.25
pipes16 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AlamedaMike [Qc] [Jc]

4 folds
AlamedaMike calls $0.50
1 folds
DawgWiz raises to $1.50 (button)
badazzbeatz calls $1.25
1 folds
My first decison. To call or not? The Button raised. Does he have a premium hand or just making a raise to get the blinds out? His stack is 33 so if I get lucky I have potentially 33:1 odds. I will call to see what the flop brings.

AlamedaMike calls $1

*** FLOP *** [Kc] [Td] [7c]

A pretty nice flop for me. Nice draws to a straight and a flush.

badazzbeatz checks, AlamedaMike checks, DawgWiz bets $3, badazzbeatz folds

Nice pot odds to call here.

AlamedaMike calls $3

*** TURN *** [Ad]

BINGO - I hit my and and I have nuts. What is my action here, guys?

1) raise all in and a) hope he calls and I win :) b) hope he folds and gives me the pot?

2) pot size bet to induce a call? and a) hope he calls and I win b) hope he folds and gives me the pot?

3) smaller bet to induce a call?


The best he could have is a set which means he has 10 re-draws to beat me. Therefore, I should give him slightly bad pot odds to induce a call. The pot has $11 so a bet about 2/3 the pot will give him bad odds assuming he calls. Which with AK or a set he is sure to call.

Some days you are the bug and some days you are the windshield. :D
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Postby AlamedaMike » Sun Sep 11, 2005 11:27 am

I am going out to play in a live game - here is the next part.

I bet $8 and he called.

*** RIVER *** [Ks]

Now what? The pot has $27 - he has $25 and I have him covered $39- what is your action? He most likely hit his full house with AK or a set?

a) check and fold/call?

b) bet and fold/call if raised? :roll:
Some days you are the bug and some days you are the windshield. :D
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Postby kennyg » Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:36 pm

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
-Iceman

Proud contributing member of the Poker Player's Alliance.
Poker Journal:
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Postby AlamedaMike » Sun Sep 11, 2005 8:14 pm

Yes, the best turn play was a check raise all in or a bet all in since he might check behind me -

he had a set of Aces so I am sure he would bet the turn and then I could raise all in.

Thanks

I am having problems with these plays due to lack of experience and it is costing me. I get out drawn without putting the maximum in on the turn.

In the live game I just came back from I make a mistake by not betting all in on the turn with the best hand and got called by the sb just to get sucked out on the river. I was the button. I had the King high straight on the turn with 3 diamonds and it was checked to me. I bet 1/2 the huge pot $100 instead of going allin - I had $240.

I was called by the player with [Ad] [Qc] (19%) and the [Kd] hit the river. I had [Qd] [9c] and the final board read

** flop *** [Ks] [Jd] [8d] *** Turn *** [Td] *** river ***[Kd]

No one had a flush but he and I and there was no full house. The flop there was a small bet and I liked my implied odds.

The first mistake was to play [Qd] [9c] on the button. If I had gone all in on the Turn he would have mucked or have made a mistake to call with 4-1 odds.
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Postby Stoneburg » Sun Sep 11, 2005 8:28 pm

Actually he has the nut straight AND the nut flush re-draw on the turn, while you have the idiot end of the straight and are drawing dead (well, 3 outs for a split).
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Postby AlamedaMike » Mon Sep 12, 2005 8:13 am

Thanks -

Actually I did not see his kicker very well since the [Ad] played the other card might have been a black King, Queen or a Jack since he said that an all-in and he might fold. Maybe he was referring to the flush possibality on the board. But,with a made straight and the nut flush redraw I think he would have called any bet.

My whole point is that I played the hand wrong. It was eithier a check and fold on the river or all-in. A bet was the wrong play.

He showed both and I only saw the [Ad] clearly - at the time I did not think he had the Queen. Only after I got home and tried to reconsruct the hand did I give him that card.

Now, I am not sure and I might have been drawing dead. I would be surprised if he had the nut straight and checked to 3 players. If he did it was because of the third diamond. I would have mucked but I had the [Qd] which I though mightt have been good - :lol: :lol:

Bottom line is that I played the hand wrong as I did about 3 hands today.
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