1/2

Dealt [Jh] im MP. Folded to me. I raise to $8. Only the cutoff calls. I've never played a hand with him before...but I noticed he did start with a full stack. He was now down to about $165.

FLOP $19
[8s][3s]
I bet $16. Opponent calls.

TURN$51
[8s][3s][7h]
I check. Opponent hesisates a little bit..probably trying to figure out how much to bet. He bets $40. I wait a bit too.. and put him all in. It's about $100 for him to call.

Thoughts??

Results later.

I have noticed when I've (temporarily!) moved up from 0.10/0.20 that people seem to call flop bets and practically always bet the turn when I check to them. They just can't be hitting it every time so I figure they're likely to be bluffing or betting some extremely marginal hands from time to time.. hopefully that's the case here and he folds 99 or something. I'd be worried about AQ though, which he'll call you with.

Amazingly enough...i don't think you give the 1/2 players enough credit. I've seen better then AQ folded in a spot like that.

I like it

i think you won this hand, plays like these are what seperate the good players from the rest. i wouldn't dream about calling with AQ here unless ive seen you make some moves at other players. anyways, i like this play depending on your table image

If I did the math right, in this case you are risking $140 to win $85, odds a bit worse than 1:2. Therefore, your opponent needs to fold only a bit more than two-thirds of the time for this to break even, even if you had no outs at all. If you're called, you're getting a little better than even money on a 4:1 shot, which sucks, but it's better than nothing and only improves your expectation.

So your play seems mathematically sound.

- Kef