limping with aces utg. WWYD on this board?

[Stelvask]

100nl. i'm sitting on a full stack. my opponent has me covered. he seems decent enough, but i dont' have any real reads on him.

I'm dealt [Ah] utg and limp. it folds to the SB who limps. BB checks.

$3. 3-way flop.
flop: [3h][5c]. SB bets $2. BB folds. i raise to $7. SB calls.

$17. heads up turn.
Turn: - SB checks. i bet $15. SB raises $22 more to $37. i call.

$91. heads up river.
River: . SB fires $30.

So what's your play and why?

results in white below.


I thought about it and couldn't figure out for the life of me what the SB held. i thought i could be up against a set, but for such a small bet i had to see what was going on. The SB showed JJ.

[Suhleafs]

gutsy call here, but it did work out.

the first thing I would have thought was a busted flush draw, but that could easily have been a made 2 pair on the river.

[Rhound50]

You had a good result here but it will burn you more than it will work. If you limp UTG with AA you need to be wiling to throw it away in a situation like this. This is a BB flop, I would have folded to the flop bet. There is a good chance you are running into 2 pair when you get reraised.

[Stelvask]

you would have folded to the flop bet? that seems remarkably weak-tight..
Against the BB i might have been more willing to place him on two pair, but the SB was a decent enough player, and i had a hard time seeing what hand he would have A: completed from the SB with, and then called my flop raise with that put him ahead of me on the turn, short of a set.

on the river 109 struck me as a possibility too, but i couldn't imagine him check raising the turn with that.

[Mad Genius]

I would play the flop same as you did but I would check behind on the turn and make a value bet on the river if he checks.

[Rhound50]

Ok I reread your post. What I should have said in my first post is I would have folded to the raise on the turn. Even more so when you say he is a decent player. I really dont think there is a major difference between SB and BB in this case, I complete with almost anything in the SB if it makes a nut straight or is suited. With the raise on the turn 3/6, 56, 36 are all possibilites. One of the major differences between a good winning player are a decent break even player is the ablity to lay down hands. In this case you are making a negative EV play calling a raise on the turn, you are going to be behind more often than you are going to be ahead even more so vs a good player. I really dont like his play of limping with JJ in the blinds either but that is a different topic.

[kennyg]

I didn't read the reponses or look at the outcome but I def. think you need to fold on the turn here. The SB could hold any hand and have you dominated. One reason you limp with AA is so you won't go broke with them. The pot isn't big enough for you to get all that money invested on the turn. Let alone the river. IMO

[iceman5]

I agree 100% with MG (as I usually do)

[Felonius_Monk]

I would fold to the turn raise. I think I WOULD have bet that turn when he checked, though I am quite ready to admit that may not be the best move if Iceman and Madge think otherwise...

[k3nt]

OK, I hate disagreeing with the big boys on this site, but I have to do it. If you've limped with AA, that means your hand is totally concealed. Nobody has any clue you could have AA. So with a T-high board, JJ, QQ, and KK here will always think their hands are good and will play them just like that. They likely put you on TPTK -- although by the end of the hand this guy was obviously nervous, judging by his small river bet.

Also, no way I can check behind on the turn. The flush draw is just too obvious a possibility. I will often bet out from the blinds with the flush draw to try to see a free river -- make them fear a check-raise on the turn.

On the other hand, I never never never limp with AA. But I sure do lose money to people who do limp with AA making me figure that my JJ is good!

I suppose this is a hand where you're not sure if you're ahead or behind. So should you fold on the turn just to decrease your variance? I don't know. Ahh, another reason not to limp with AA.

[eliteprodigy]

I bet that turn but fold to his raise for sure

[Rhound50]

K3nt, your major problem here is that another big pair is the only thing that he could be betting that you are ahead of. If he is a good soild player you have to put him on two pair or better. Not many player limp from the BB with KK, QQ or JJ. With those hands limping in the blinds is bad, you are out of postion the rest of the betting. Personally I think this guy made a really bad play with JJ. In that situation I'm perfectly happy to take down the blidns with a decent sized preflop raise with JJ out of position.

[k3nt]

I see what you're saying, Rhound. There are only a few hands that you can beat. But at the same time, there's only a few hands that are beating you, too. So you don't know where you are. Maybe that alone is a good reason to fold, I don't know.

Let's go through the whole hand.

On the flop. Typical players who flop a set are not betting out $2 into a $3 pot -- from the SB!! -- with that raggedy board and no preflop raisers. If you flop the set there, you check and go for the check-raise, or check-raise the turn, to at least get some money in the pot. So the guy does not have a set of Ts, 5s, or 3s.

Now he check-raises the turn. If he has a set, it's a set of 6s. But this doesn't seem likely to me -- do you really call a big flop raise with only 66 on a T-high board? Still, it's possible.

The other hands that the 6 helped are 74 and 42 (straight), along with T6, 65, and 63 (2 pair). None seem all that likely, but they're somewhat possible because a lot of people complete the SB with nothing.

But look at the flop play. 63 seems very unlikely -- would you really bet out from the SB on the flop with only bottom pair? 65 is not impossible, but not that likely -- I rarely see people betting middle pair no kicker from the SB either. Do you? (And if you do bet this hand, do you call a big flop raise with it?) Ditto for 74 and 42 -- are you really betting out & calling a reraise with a crappy gutshot? So take those hands away, they're pretty darned unlikely.

So assuming a reasonable opponent, you are ahead of the following hands: AT (overplayed, but not impossible), JJ, QQ, and KK. You're also ahead of a busted flush draw that was trying to give himself additional folding equity on the turn. You're behind to 66 and T6, and not much else. You don't know where you are, and it will increase your variance, but to my mind you're at least a 50-50 shot to win the hand and you should give it a shot.

[Rhound50]

[k3nt]

Thanks for all the info and thoughts, Rhound. I will be processing this for a while yet, trying to figure it out.

I think I'll just keep on raising preflop whenever I get AA though. Avoid the whole problem.