Advanced search

Hitting a huge draw! Big pot w/ odds analysis

Hand analysis. Post your trouble hands here

Moderators: iceman5, LPF Police Department

Hitting a huge draw! Big pot w/ odds analysis

Postby bigmott » Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:57 pm

Hello Everyone,

This is my first post, and so I thought I'd start off on a positive note. Here's a hand from my session earlier today at Paradise Poker (yes, I'm doing the reload bonus). It happens to be the largest pot I've ever won (been playing NL ring about 3 months) at a $50 table.


Although I'm clearly pleased with the result of the hand, I also think I played it right, according to the odds. I've commented on each street with evaluation of my odds, so this could possibly help those who aren't clear on this topic. Feel free to correct any errors etc. On to the hand..

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed)

MP2 ($33.25)
CO ($66.75)
Button ($48.50)
SB ($98.50)
BB ($50.00)
Hero ($74.50)
UTG+1 ($19.50)
MP1 ($58.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [Jd], [Qd]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.50) [9c], [Td], [6s] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $0.5, SB calls $0.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.50, CO raises to $2.5, Button calls $2, SB calls $2, Hero calls $2.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flopped the nut straight draw. I have 2 overcards as well. My outs are 10 including the overs, but I'd feel a lot better if I hit the straight....so I'll say 8 outs. 8/47 is 39:8, or 4.875:1.
First: $0.50 to me with $3.50 in the pot. 7:1 - Greater than hand odds, I can correctly call.
Second: $2 to me with $10.50 in the pot. ~5:1- I can correctly call again.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Turn: ($12.50) [4d] (4 players)
SB bets $5, Hero calls $5, CO calls $5, Button raises to $10, SB raises to $25, Hero calls $20, CO folds, Button calls $15.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Turn is a lovely card. Brings me a flush draw as well - although it's not the nut flush draw, I have trouble putting anybody else on a diamond draw. I give myself 15 outs. 15/46 is 31:15, or just about 2:1.
First: $5 to me with $17.50 in the pot. 3.5:1- I can correctly call.
Second: $20 to me with $57.50 in the pot. ~3:1 - I can correctly call.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

River: ($92.50) [Ad] (3 players) (Ace of diamonds - bingo!)
SB bets $20, Hero raises to $46.5 (All-in), Button calls $20.50, SB calls $26.50.

Final Pot: $206

Results below:
SB has 4c 4s (three of a kind, fours).
Hero has Jd Qd (flush, ace high).
Button has 9d Ts (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: Hero wins $206.

These guys gave me odds to call all the way down and I hit my hand. With the Ad out, the only semi-reasonable hand that beats me is [Kd][9d], which should have folded on the flop and definitely the turn (thus the all in). You gotta love when the odds work in your favour, especially when you hit!! Feel free to comment or correct...I hope this was helpful in some way!
User avatar
bigmott
 
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:08 am

Postby Cactus Jack » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:16 am

"Are the players better as the stakes go up? It's not an exam; it's a buyin." Barry Tanenbaum
User avatar
Cactus Jack
 
Posts: 3400
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 7:24 am
Location: Vegas, baby

Postby iceman5 » Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:49 am

On the flop, if your overcards out were good (and I dont think theres any chance they are in this multiway pot), you would have 14 outs, not 10. Just use 8 outs for your calculations which is what you did.

You did have odds the whole way so you played it fine, although I never seem to hit hands like these and hate paying ever increasing installments like this to try to hit my hand.
iceman5 [As]
User avatar
iceman5
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 13875
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:49 pm
Location: Texas

Postby bigmott » Sun Aug 28, 2005 10:31 pm

User avatar
bigmott
 
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:08 am


Return to No Limit Hold'em Cash Games

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests