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AQ hand 1

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AQ hand 1

Postby Alchemist » Wed Aug 03, 2005 5:37 pm

Need some help with this one, disregarding villains hand, how is my play? I'm new at raising AQ and thought it was a good spot to do so on a passive table with only one limper infront

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (9 handed)

MP1 ($23.50)
MP2 ($40.75)
MP3 ($79.10)
Hero ($55.05)
Button ($49.75)
SB ($25.40)
BB ($19.50)
UTG ($147.75)
UTG+1 ($29.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Qh], [Ac].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.5, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) [8s], [6s], [5h] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($5.75) [5c] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($5.75) [Ad] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75.

Final Pot: $17.25

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has 6h 6c (full house, sixes full of fives).
Hero has Qh Ac (two pair, aces and fives).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $17.25.


I really did not like this flop hence my check behind. With any decent bet I was ready to muck but the A on the river led me to calling villains bet. I thought he would at least have bet the turn with a monster like this.
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Postby kennyg » Wed Aug 03, 2005 7:39 pm

I like throwing out a continuation bet on the flop....probably would have made it $5.



Wouldn't have mattered apparently. You have to call the river bet.
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Postby iceman5 » Wed Aug 03, 2005 7:51 pm

For the past 2 weeks or so Ive been keeping track of all my continuation bets.

if I raise here like you did, I want to know how often I get called when I bet the flop (regardless of what I have or what the flop is).

So far Im getting called about 35% of the time. That means that if you raise 5BBs like you did here, and bet 3/4 pot or full pot regardless of the flop and regardless of what you have, you will win money.

if you bet full pot every time, you only need them to fold 50% of the time to break even...even if you have nothing and check/fold the turn every time. Obviously alot of the time you will still have the best hand and will win even more money.

if you bet 3/4 pot, then they need to fold even less than 50% to make money. but they are folding 65% of the time against me now.

That means that i could raise any 2 cards and bet the flop no matter what it is and its +EV. Now I dont do that because if I did it THAT often, I would get called alot more.

I say all that to say this..........bet that flop!!!!

So what, that hes going to call or raise with his set. He will fold enough of the time that its +EV to bet the flop every time you raise preflop. Now if you have multiple callers its a whole different ballgame. You can check some flops so that you can check raise sometimes with a good hand, but for the most part just bet the flop.
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