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Good fold or weak tight?

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Good fold or weak tight?

Postby briachek » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:08 pm

Villian is loose(35%) but about average aggression numbers. Was this a good laydown?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.5 BB (10 handed)

SB ($59)
BB ($54.45)
UTG ($97.39)
UTG+1 ($107.12)
UTG+2 ($22.81)
MP1 ($50.67)
Hero ($47.25)
MP3 ($49.5)
CO ($58.27)
Button ($22.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with [As], [Kc].
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8.75) [Kh], [4h], [Td] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $8, CO raises to $25, UTG folds, MP1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $41.75

Results in white below:
No showdown. CO wins $41.75.
Brian [Js][9s]
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Re: Good fold or weak tight?

Postby Rhapsodus » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:33 pm

First read my response to a similar play:
forum/viewtopic.php?t=4008

This is a tough call, I am thinking he has AA here or 2 pair with a flush draw. The difference between this situation and the one stated above is the jump of aggression on the flop. He doesn't call the flop and raise the turn ( classic set trap ).

My guess is that he has AA or KT, maybe TT with a possible flush draw on top.

AA *, KK*, AK, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, QK, KT*, QJ, KJ, TT*, Pocket Pair

The hands that beat you are the * You beat 8 and are beaten by 4, Since it would have cost 17$ to win 41$ you have 2.41 : 1 which is slightly better than the 2 : 1 of the possible hands you beat; which is a borderline call slightly in your favor.

The fact that he goes extravagently to one extreme may be a bluff and bluffers love tight players with a 4x BB raise with AK ;) He might have pinned you down to AA, KK, AQ*, AK*, QQ*, or JJ*. 4 out of these 6 hands are going to hesitate. In his mind he was rolling on the chance you have 2/3 of these hands; which is a good bluff for the payout,

In these situations I would consider his bluff rate instead of his volume in pot.
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Postby briachek » Sat Jun 11, 2005 8:00 pm

One thing, I don't think of it as $17 to win $41 since I am positive all the money would be going in if I continue. I don't see me calling this as I can't fold later so its either all in or fold. Therefore, its costing me $37 to continue with this hand.
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Postby Rhapsodus » Sat Jun 11, 2005 8:06 pm

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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sat Jun 11, 2005 8:35 pm

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Postby briachek » Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:04 pm

Brian [Js][9s]
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Postby scarface » Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:27 pm

I think it was a good laydown, AK has been killing me today when I flop TPTK because I wasn't able to let it go, he has to know you have a pretty good hand and he's reraising you a pretty hefty amount, probably trips and is afraid of the flush, I think your laydown here is going to be the right play more often than not.
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Postby kennyg » Sun Jun 12, 2005 1:39 am

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
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Postby Kalle » Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:28 am

There are two other players in the hand and they can both wake up with a set. He doesnt raise there with a hand you beat (unless he's a morron). Without the other players in the hand it would be closer to a push (still a fold I think). But with them in the hand it's an easy fold.

Use the presence of other players in the hand to get information on the raiser's hand. For example if you call a preflop raise with TT and the flop is 942 and the raiser bets on flop, you can sometimes raise or call if it's HU. But if there are two other players in the hand, most players will not bet the flop without a pair. And you should probably fold if the raiser bets.
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Postby Aisthesis » Sun Jun 12, 2005 9:24 am

Actually, I think this is another case where pokertracker tends to reduce reads to certain numbers that don't really tell you many of the things that you have to know in order to deal properly with hands like this.

As Rhap pointed out, what you need to know here is whether he's bluffy or not. LAG or TAG just doesn't tell you that.
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