Game is 2-4 NL

I'm dealt AA in MP and there are a couple of limpers. I raise to $20 and am called by a tight aggressive player. His stats almost mirror mine. His VIP is 17% and his aggression factor is right around 1.5. The flop comes down K-4-8 2 Clubs. He checks to me and the pot is about $45. I bet almost the full pot (something in the range of $35-40). He flat calls me. The turn brings an offsuit 6. He checks to me and I again bet almost the full pot ($85 into a pot of about $100). He pauses for about 5-7 seconds and raises to $250. Now I've played a decent number of hands with this guy and I know he's the type of player that would do this w/o a hand that beats AA but he's also very capable of holding the probable set in this spot. In a previous hand I had played with him, I had checked Qx to him on K[8s][7s] board (don't know why I did this but I did) and he had checked behind with [Js]. When the flush completed on the turn, he raised me with the nuts (I figured him to be playing the and maybe a pair trying to push me off my hand) and value bet on the river and I paid him off thinking my top pair was good.

Now back to this hand. The board reads K-4-8-6. I obviously don't put him on the made straight but put him on a bluff or a set of 8's. In my mind, these are the most probable holdings. My first instict was to call here and see if he pushes the river. I really hate playing this way but I wanted to see if that would slow him down. I ended up folding and asking him what he had. He never showed his cards but told me, "You're a good player." He ended up telling me he had 99 and knew I had a big hand but was capable of making a good laydown on the turn. He said unless I had KKK, it would be difficult to call. He's right. He could be lying but I tend to believe this guy.

Now my question is did I allow my previous week of having AA cracked about 6 times affect my play here and cause me to fold the winner or is this a good fold over the long haul? I've found this is one of the toughest situations I'm facing over and over and over again. I can lay down AA but I don't want to be tight passive and start letting people run me over. At the same time, I don't want my stats to show red for AA like they have for me over the last 13k hands. Any advice would be appreciated.

He mightve been bluffing this time, but at least 75% of time, youre toast.

I make that play every now and then if Im against a guy I think can laydown AA, but i cant remember the last time I called one of those kinds of raises and won the hand. Its just not worth it to try to pick off a buff in that spot.

Thats why I check behind on the turn so often with a big pair, although its not always a good play when theres a flush draw out there.

Remembering I'm a rook and have little experience at NL, but I've played a lot of limit. I've got a concern.

"Now my question is did I allow my previous week of having AA cracked about 6 times affect my play here and cause me to fold the winner..."

A lot of players feel this way, and it's fraught with peril. We have incredible memories, but cards do not. What happened last week has no impact on today, unless you let it. I'm fortunate I don't let losing a hand influence the way I play the next, but I work at keeping my mind even and calm.

You made the right play, imho, and I would have done the same. You ARE a good player, and good players let it go. In 4,000 hands on FT, my win rate with AA is 71%, and I've lost $48.30. I'm confident I play them right and will continue to play them that way. Poker happens.

CJ