$1/2. Unknown ($193) raises minimum UTG. 1 caller. I ($213) raise to $14 with black jacks in MP. Only UTG calls.

Flop $35
[Jh][Tc]

He checks, I bet $25, he calls

Turn $85
[Jh][Tc][Qc]

Check, check

River $85
[Jh][Tc][Qc][As]

He goes all in for $154. I insta-call without thinking.

I know some of you probably only call this preflop (or raise bigger) but I decided to raise. It’s the river call I’m unsure about. What does the overbet mean?

I believe it means that he rivered his boat with AQ. AK is possible but probably less likely. Anything else is probably out of the question if he has half a brain. I think the decision is kind of tough, but I would end up making that call against the vast majority of online players. If you have a read that would be helpful.

A read would be very helpful. I know most players at this limit well, but we were both new to the table and I had never seen him before. He bought in for maximum which indicates that he is not a fish.

Yeah I'd insta-call too...so many morons online..i can def. see them doing that with the king.

i hate this hand - not your play, that was fine. just the hand.

bottom line, i'd say thers'a fair chance you're up against a king, but a better once that your'e up against the boat.

unfortunatly, the only other boat you beat is 1010.

with only $39 invested in the pot at this point, and the only hand you actually beat being Kx (since Arag is not making this play), i think you have to fold. while it's not a terrible call, and certainly not without justification (you flopped a set damnit), if you had been able to sit back for a second and think about it, the rang of hands you beat here is limited to one (ok, Arag *might* do it, but i still say no).

i think this is a fold.

I dont necessarily agree with your 50/50 assessment Stelvask, but if you really believe the 50/50 then you have to call. Poker is all about odds.

If you believe you will win the hand 50% of the time and the bet is $154 to you with a pot of $239....you have to call. Its that simple.

yeah yeah, i konw. in my defense i woke up like 3 minutes before that post. i've never been any good at saying "there's a 35% chance that A holds X and a 65% chance that A holds Y".

i take back the 50/50 part

I think you probably make the call, but I also would not be surprised to see aces full. Did I mention I really don't like your check on the turn? You are potentially giving a free card to a split pot. Sure he might have the king, but if he had a king he made an incorrect call. That is unless he had KJ or KT, in which case his call is slightly better.

By the river I think there are a range of hands you can put him on, and I think you are about even money, maybe slightly worse to win the pot. If he is a decent player we can put him on some hands based on how he played the pot. Simply calling with 2 pair on the flop is a poor play. Similarly I think he might have raised with AQ given your less-than-pot-sized bet on the flop. However AQ is the likeliest of the hands that kill you. Other than that you could put him on Ax suited, KQ, KJ, KT, with KQ being the likeliest. His play makes sense if he flopped the nut straight and was trapping you. On the turn he fears you have a king. When you check behind him he feels safe, and moves all in.

Working in your favor is that you have a well disguised hand here. I am not sure he can put YOU on a boat here. I will lay you even money between AQ and KQ.

I agree that checking the turn is best here. There is just too great a chance that he has AK at this point to make a bet, and anything less probably folds to a significant bet anyway. If the river blanks and he checks yet again, I think that would be a good time to make a value bet, as AQ would pay you off in all likelihood.

First of all I think AK is a very unlikely holding there. Who check/calls AK with a board like that? The key here is the check/call and the check. That is either a drawing hand or a monster. I think it saves you money in the long run to know which. Do you really want to go to the river not knowing if you are up against the straight or not? Say the river is blank and he bets $50? Well you have to pay that off. So you are $50 more into it either way.

I'd just as soon go to the river knowing where I stand.

Why is AK unlikely? I don't see any indication at all that it is. A lot of people will check-call that flop when someone else has re-raised preflop. What does a re-raise mean? Usually AA or KK, sometimes QQ and AK. This is a classic way-ahead or way-behind situation for AK, and there is no reason to checkraise the flop. As for betting out, a lot of people would do that with AK, but some people will always check to the PF aggressor. On the turn, AK would once again check, hoping to checkraise. I do not see how a bet will define HIS hand - rather, it defines your hand moreso, which gives the opponent information to make his decision on the turn. Keep in mind that there is a one-card straight out there, which means hero is likely not gonna get action with any hand that beats him, but will be forced to fold to a checkraise by a straight. Yes, it does leave you with a tough decision on the river at times, but over the long run it is +EV to check that turn.