I am starting to get a grasp of what it is. You may be a 2-1 to win the hand but your chances are actually better because after ur big raise your opponent will fold some of the time. Am i on the right track? Can someone give me an example of a hand with high fold equity. And one with low equity and why??LOL I am confused!!

fold equity goes something like this.

$50NL @ Prima. MP2 limps....i complete in the SB w/ [8s]. BB (a BTP'er who is up there among the better players at the $50 level) checks.

flop: [6s][8c]
pot size: $1.50

i lead for $1. BB raises to $4. MP2 folds. i push all in for $98.50.

the idea is that he will fold: overpairs, random BB 2 pairs, and maybe even 33.

oh wait. villain calls. maybe i learned it wrong but the idea is that you push hard with a big draw, hard enough to make it real tough for them to call without the current nuts.

it's (obviously) most effective when you can put your opponent on a logical hand that will bet the flop but fold to a raise, or raise the flop but fold to an all-in. something like TPTK, an overpair, bottom 2 pair, etc etc. and you really have to know your opponent and know that he's capable of folding a good hand.

it's not so effective when you raise all-in by an absurdly large amount, because a lot of opponents will figure out that you're on a flush draw.

jon

Starting to sink in! Thanks for taking the time to reply!

Example: 400NL. Opponent with $160 raises to $16. I am the only caller in SB with [7c]. Flop is [5c][2h]. I check, opponent bets pot, $40 (1 player posted to play - and let’s ignore the rake). I checkraise all in - another $104.
I risk $144 to win $80.
I think he will call with KK, AA, [Kc], AQ and KQ (I don’t think he has QQ) and fold everything else. Against these hands my pot equity is 36% - I win 36% of the times when he calls (poker stove). If he calls the pot will be 80+144+104= $328

How often shall my opponent fold to make this play break-even for me.

I think this is the simplest formula is this (this is not a formula I have come up with):

F = (B - E) / (Pf - E)

where

F = break-even probability of opponent folding
B = amount of hero's bet (or, if raising, amount of call + raise)
Pf = pot size when opponent folds, including hero's last bet
E = equity in pot when called (in terms of $s, not %) )

B =144
Pf = 224
E: 0.36*328 = 118.08

F = (144-118.08) / (224-118.08)
F = 0.245 = 25%

For my push to be +EV my folding equity needs to be 25%+. If he on average folds more than 25% of the time the play is +EV. 25% sounds low, but in the hand he actually called with AQ and I don’t know if he would make that flop bet with AK or JJ. I‘m not proud of how I played the hand, but it’s a good example.

Obviously I didn’t do these calculations during the hand. But when you semi bluff it’s good to know roughly, how often you will win if called, and how big a folding equity you need to break even with your play. This is also true when the semi bluff is not an all in move.

If you want to do the math on other hands, Iceman posted an interesting hand - forum/viewtopic.php?t=5773:

Effective stats $1K. Hero raises to $40 with 65s. Two callers, $125 in pot on flop - T43r. One of the callers bet $120. Hero raises all in. If called hero’s equity is, let’s say 32 % (33-44, TT-QQ).

At what folding equity is this a break-even play for hero?

I think the most important thing to remember about fold equity is that the concept is based around playing against savvy oppnents that are trying to put other players on hands and will fold when they believe they are beat.

If you are at lower levels were players are more apt to just play their cards, I think fold equity shrinks to near zero.

You are totally right. About at low levels Fold Equity is almost non-existent. I am just curious as to what exactly it is. thanks though!