AA on a flushed board

[GooperMC]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

MP2 ($5)
MP3 ($18.25)
CO ($28.25)
Button ($83.55)
SB ($33.05)
BB ($3.50)
UTG ($47.15)
UTG+1 ($26.20)
Hero ($25)
MP1 ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with , . SB posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.35) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $6, CO folds, Button calls $6.

Turn: ($18.35) (2 players)
Hero???

My opponent is a complete manic: He had a VP$IP above 80, a PRF of
15, a Post Flop Agg above 4, and a W$SD below 40. I have seen him show down TP no kicker already and a check will almost guarantee a pot bet.

2 questions:
1) What do you do here?
2) What would you do if you the As was an Ac?

[CocaCola]

this is a very common scenario... normally i would bet 10 at that board, pray he doesn't raise and pray a spade falls. if you check a lot of villains will bet and put you to the test whether they caught the flush or not. im kinda on the weaker side so if he called the turn i'd probably check it and hope for a cheap showdown

[briachek]

i don't bet at this board because he could easily not have the flush but be beating you. I check and if he keeps it cheap enough, I call. If not, I am willing to check/fold to a read bet on this turn.

[Rhound50]

Gooper already sent this to me in E-mail but since he posted it let me give my 2 cents to this hand. To me tha fact that he has a flush redraw is not all that huge, that gives him an extra 18% to draw to on the river. There is very little AA is ahead of here other than AQ or Kq and if you are up against a made flush you are a huge underdog. You have to assume you are going to be behind the majority of the time here. There is $16 in the pot and you have $17 left, if you are going to be it had to be all in. Though you are only going to be getting 2:1 on your money even best case vs 2 pr you are still a 3.5:1 underdog, vs a made flush you are 6:1 underdog, there are not enough times that you are ahead here to make up the difference IMO, even in a game as fishy as $25 party games.

[Chris-bg]

[GooperMC]

Here is the point that I disagreed with Rhound during the email: that 16% really does help my hand. A small EV calc:

Prob that I have him beat right now: X
Prob that he has me beat right now: 1-X
If we get all in final pot will be: 50
If I go all in I will put into the pot: 17
Assume that if I have him beat he sill has 10% of PE
Assume that I have approx 2 non-flush outs

With flush re-draw:
0 = (1-x)(.20)(50) + (x)(.9)(50) – 17
0 = 10(1-x) + 45x – 17
0 = 10 – 10x + 45x – 17
35x = 7
x = .20

Without the flush re-draw
0 = (1-x)(.04)(50) + (x)(.9)(50) – 17
0 = 2(1-x) + 45x – 17
0 = 2 – 2x + 45x – 17
33x = 15
X = .45

If I did my math correct with the flush re-draw he only has to be bluffing / have TP no Kicker 1 time in 5. With out the flush re-draw it has to be 1 time in 2. You guys sure this isn’t a check call with the flush re-draw and a check fold with out?

[kennyg]

After looking at the hand before other posts...i decided a check was the best play. So many hands are beating AA and you don't wanna get raised off the hand. If you check..you're also inducing bluffs.

Since he's a total maniac I would have a hard time folding on any street.

[T-Rod]

[briachek]

when playing a maniac, i am fine being bluffed out of a hand, like this one. All i'm beating is a bluff or a something like K8 and such. If someone is gonna push me around with hands like that, i will catch him. I would try to minimize losses in marginal hands like this and try to maximize when i actually hit a hand.

[Stoneburg]

[GooperMC]

kenny, stone, do you guys think it is still a check call if I didn't have the As?

[T-Rod]

IMHO, if he has a AF of 4 he's not calling many bets. Many maniacs are that way (I call it hollow aggression).

here he's calling you. YIKES. That's someone that wants you in the hand. I check/call with or without the A[s] b/c I think I'm probably behind.

Tim

[kennyg]

Folding is a better option without the . I can see folding that...i can't see folding with that spade in your hand though.

Of course this is all dependent on the size of the bets he makes.

[GooperMC]

Thanks for the input guys.

Just for a laugh (and a cry) he was playing and hit a on the river.